Key Focus

  • Together with soaring levels of public debt, this all but ensures a more anemic recovery than the one that followed the Great Recession a decade ago.
    A second factor is the demographic time bomb in advanced economies. The COVID-19 crisis shows that much more public spending must be allocated to health systems, and that universal health care and other relevant public goods are necessities, not luxuries
  • Recurring epidemics (HIV since the 1980s, SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, MERS in 2011, Ebola in 2014-16) are, like climate change, essentially man-made disasters, born of poor health and sanitary standards, the abuse of natural systems, and the growing interconnectivity of a globalized world


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High Level Topics

  • CRISIS
  • RISKS
  • ECONOMY
  • High Level Abstractions

  • CRISIS(5, 0 Order)
  • ( CRISIS )(5, 0 Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, HEALTH )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, DEBT )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19 )(3, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, RISKS )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, POLICY )(2, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, GLOBAL )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, ECONOMY )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, DEBT )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, UNSUSTAINABLE )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, TECHNOLOGY )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, UNSUSTAINABLE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, RISKS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, POLICY )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, GLOBAL )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CRISIS, ECONOMY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • RISKS(3, 0 Order)
  • ( RISKS )(3, 0 Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, UNSUSTAINABLE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, POLICY )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, DEBT )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, U-SHAPED )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, TRENDS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, RECOVERY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( RISKS, PRIVATE-SECTOR )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ECONOMY(3, 0 Order)
  • ( ECONOMY )(3, 0 Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, RISKS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, GLOBAL )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, POLITICAL )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, COVID-19 )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, WEALTH )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, TWENTY-FIRST-CENTURY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( ECONOMY, TECHNOLOGY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • References

    • ( CRISIS )  top
    • ( CRISIS, HEALTH )  top
    • (Read more)   top. The COVID-19 crisis shows that much more public spending must be allocated to health systems, and that universal health care and other relevant public goods are necessities, not luxuries
    • (Read more)   topRecurring epidemics (HIV since the 1980s, SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, MERS in 2011, Ebola in 2014-16) are, like climate change, essentially man-made disasters, born of poor health and sanitary standards, the abuse of natural systems, and the growing interconnectivity of a globalized world
    • ( CRISIS, DEBT )  top
    • (Read more)   topThe policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits - on the order of 10% of GDP or more - at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.
      Worse, the loss of income for many households and firms means that private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too,...
    • (Read more)   topTogether with soaring levels of public debt, this all but ensures a more anemic recovery than the one that followed the Great Recession a decade ago.
      A second factor is the demographic time bomb in advanced economies
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19 )  top
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, RISKS )  top
    • (Read more)   topThe world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.
      NEW YORK - After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, POLICY )  top
    • (Read more)   top
      NEW YORK - After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes.
    • (Read more)   topThe policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits - on the order of 10% of GDP or more - at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.
      Worse,...
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, GLOBAL )  top
    • (Read more)   top The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
      Apr 28, 2020
      NOURIEL ROUBINI
      While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.
      NEW YORK - After the...
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, ECONOMY )  top
    • (Read more)   top The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
      Apr 28, 2020
      NOURIEL ROUBINI
      While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.
      NEW YORK - After the 2007-09...
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, DEBT )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , DEBT )
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, UNSUSTAINABLE )  top
    • (Read more)   top... policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits - on the order of 10% of GDP or more - at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.
      Worse,
      the loss of income for many households and firms means that private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too, potentially leading to mass defaults and bankruptcies
    • ( CRISIS, COVID-19, TECHNOLOGY )  top
    • (Read more)   top And because technology is the key weapon in the fight for control of the industries of the future and in combating pandemics, the US private tech sector will become increasingly integrated into the national-security-industrial...
    • ( CRISIS, UNSUSTAINABLE )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , UNSUSTAINABLE )
    • ( CRISIS, RISKS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , RISKS )
    • ( CRISIS, POLICY )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , POLICY )
    • ( CRISIS, GLOBAL )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , GLOBAL )
    • ( CRISIS, ECONOMY )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , ECONOMY )
    • ( RISKS )  top
    • ( RISKS, UNSUSTAINABLE )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , UNSUSTAINABLE )
    • ( RISKS, POLICY )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , POLICY )
    • (Read more)   top. The policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits - on the order of 10% of GDP or more - at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.
      Worse,...
    • ( RISKS, DEBT )  top
    • (Read more)   top... deficits and their corollary risks: debts and defaults. The policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits - on the order of 10% of GDP or more - at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.
      Worse, the loss of income for many households and firms means that private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too,...
    • ( RISKS, U-SHAPED )  top
    • (Read more)   topUnfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lackluster U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade, owing to ten ominous and risky trends.
      op buchholz1 OLIVIER DOULIERYAFP via Getty Images mnuchinpowell
      How Will...
    • ( RISKS, TRENDS )  top
    • (Read more)   topUnfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lackluster U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade, owing to ten ominous and risky trends.
      op buchholz1 OLIVIER
      DOULIERYAFP via Getty Images mnuchinpowell
      How Will the Great Cessation End.
      The first trend concerns deficits and their corollary risks: debts and defaults
    • ( RISKS, RECOVERY )  top
    • (Read more)   topUnfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lackluster U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade, owing to ten ominous and risky trends.
      op buchholz1 OLIVIER DOULIERYAFP via Getty Images mnuchinpowell
      How Will...
    • ( RISKS, PRIVATE-SECTOR )  top
    • (Read more)   top
      Worse, the loss of income for many households and firms means that private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too, potentially leading to mass defaults and bankruptcies
    • ( ECONOMY )  top
    • ( ECONOMY, RISKS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , RISKS )
    • (Read more)   top
      These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair
    • ( ECONOMY, GLOBAL )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( CRISIS , COVID-19 , GLOBAL )
    • (Read more)   top
      These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive,...
    • ( ECONOMY, POLITICAL )  top
    • (Read more)   top. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.
      NEW YORK - After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were...
    • (Read more)   top... ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order
    • ( ECONOMY, COVID-19 )  top
    • (Read more)   top The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
      Apr 28, 2020
      NOURIEL ROUBINI
      While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which...
    • (Read more)   top
      These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair
    • ( ECONOMY, WEALTH )  top
    • (Read more)   top. With millions of people losing their jobs or working and earning less, the income and wealth gaps of the twenty-first-century economy will widen further.
    • ( ECONOMY, TWENTY-FIRST-CENTURY )  top
    • (Read more)   topWith millions of people losing their jobs or working and earning less, the income and wealth gaps of the twenty-first-century economy will widen further.
    • ( ECONOMY, TECHNOLOGY )  top
    • (Read more)   top. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order