Semantics Relevance

Everybody is looking at the CPI through the wrong lens. The best measure shows ...

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Spatial co-ordinations are initially random, and will automatically re-arrange to minimize complexity based on distance between relationships. Mouse down and drag to pan. Right click on the strategic diagram toggles between motion and stationary. Hover over the leaf node to view corresponding narrative. Left click on the leaf node expands the narrative to view full text.

Narrative Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • Instead of concentrating on the here and now, most reports put the year-on-year inflation rate in the headline. Not to pick on anyone, but here's how The New York Times reported Thursday's report on the consumer price index : "Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent in the year through September, in a report that dashes hopes that inflation in the U.S
  • For instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI.
  • In this case, we would find that consumer prices have risen 8.2% since September 2021. That's very high inflation, but it's lower than the 9% year-on-year increase recorded in June, which was a 40-year high.
  • That's why many analysts prefer to convert the monthly change into an annual rate so that it's comparable to the year-on-year inflation rate. The data say that the CPI rose at an annual rate of 4.7% in September versus the 17.1% pace in June, which was a 17-year high

    • No momentum supporting factor found

    Challenge supporting factors

  • (inflation,persisting)
  • (inflation,keep)
  • (inflation,interest)
  • (cpi,federal_reserve)
  • (inflation,federal_reserve)
  • (cpi,september_wholesale)
  • (cpi,persisting)
  • (cpi,keep)
  • (cpi,interest)

    • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (inflation,year-on-year)
  • (inflation,cpi,september_wholesale)
  • (inflation,fed)
  • (inflation,september_wholesale)
  • (inflation,three-month)
  • (inflation,smoothed)
  • (inflation,policy)
  • (inflation,investors)
  • (cpi,three-month)
  • (cpi,month-to-month)

    • Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report32.56 0.00 67.45

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (inflation,year-on-year)100.00
    (2) (inflation,cpi,september_wholesale)30.49
    (3) (inflation,fed)29.27
    (4) (inflation,september_wholesale)28.05
    (5) (inflation,three-month)21.95
    (6) (inflation,smoothed)20.73
    (7) (inflation,policy)19.51
    (8) (inflation,persisting)18.29
    (9) (inflation,keep)17.07
    (10) (inflation,investors)15.85
    (11) (inflation,interest)14.63
    (12) (cpi,federal_reserve)13.41
    (13) (inflation,federal_reserve)12.20
    (14) (cpi,three-month)7.32
    (15) (cpi,september_wholesale)6.10
    (16) (cpi,persisting)4.88
    (17) (cpi,month-to-month)3.66
    (18) (cpi,keep)2.44
    (19) (cpi,interest)1.22

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    Supporting narratives:

    Please refer to knowledge diagram for a complete set of supporting narratives.

    • challenge - Back to HLA
      • . The U.S. cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,persisting)

    • challenge - Back to HLA
      • cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,keep)
        • (inflation,interest)

    • challenge - Back to HLA
      • cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cpi,federal_reserve)
        • (inflation,federal_reserve)
        • (cpi,persisting)

    • challenge - Back to HLA
      • cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases. . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cpi,september_wholesale)

    • challenge - Back to HLA
      • cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases. . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cpi,keep)
        • (cpi,interest)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,cpi,september_wholesale)
        • (inflation,september_wholesale)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (inflation,september_wholesale) [inferred]

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • . . Instead of concentrating on the here and now, most reports put the year-on-year inflation rate in the headline. Not to pick on anyone, but here's how The New York Times reported Thursday's report on the consumer price index : "Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent in the year through September, in a report that dashes hopes that inflation in the U.S
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,year-on-year)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • For instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,year-on-year)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • In this case, we would find that consumer prices have risen 8.2% since September 2021. That's very high inflation, but it's lower than the 9% year-on-year increase recorded in June, which was a 40-year high.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,year-on-year)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • That's why many analysts prefer to convert the monthly change into an annual rate so that it's comparable to the year-on-year inflation rate. The data say that the CPI rose at an annual rate of 4.7% in September versus the 17.1% pace in June, which was a 17-year high
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,year-on-year)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • This perspective answers the question: What's happening with inflation yesterday, today and tomorrow. If we look at the three-month smoothed annual rate, we might disagree with the Fed about how much progress they've made
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,three-month)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • This perspective answers the question: What's happening with inflation yesterday, today and tomorrow. If we look at the three-month smoothed annual rate, we might disagree with the Fed about how much progress they've made.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,fed)
        • (inflation,smoothed)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • The best measure shows inflation is slowing, but how much is it slowing. That's the big question facing policy makers, investors and consumers.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,policy)
        • (inflation,investors)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • " The Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot inflation for the next year or so is baked into the cake."
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,fed)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • The Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot inflation for the next year or so is baked into the cake
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (inflation,fed)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • So let's find the underlying trend by taking a three-month average to smooth out the bumps. In this case, the data say that the CPI rose at a 2% annual rate from July through through September, down from 11% in June and 11.3% in March, which was a 41-year high
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cpi,three-month)

    • WIP - Back to HLA
      • So if we wanted to know how hot inflation has been running lately, we'd look at a shorter period of time, say, one month. The media frequently report the CPI this way, using the month-to-month percentage change rather than an annual rate. In this case, the data would say that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after a 0.1% increase in August
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cpi,month-to-month)