Logical Analysis Report

Key Focus

Measures have included support for money-market funds and primary dealers, as well as Treasury bill purchases and repo (collateralized repurchase transactions) to support the overnight and short-term money markets on whose smooth functioning the financial system depends.
Fiscal policy efforts are aimed at helping consumers and businesses survive financially and to get them to the other side of the crisis. Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery
After the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
This category includes, among other things, spending on infrastructure and direct grants to state and local governments.
Loans. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase

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High Level Topics

BUSINESSES

GOVERNMENTS

ECONOMY

COLLAPSE

High Level Abstractions

BUSINESSES(7, 0 Order)

( BUSINESSES )(7, 0 Order) top

( BUSINESSES, CONSUMERS )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, GOVERNMENTS )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, ECONOMY )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, COLLAPSE )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, CASCADING )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, SPENDING )(2, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, POLICY )(2, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, KEEP )(2, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, INSURANCE )(2, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, INDIVIDUALS )(3, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, FEDERAL_GOVERNMENT )(2, 1st Order) top

( BUSINESSES, ECONOMIC )(1, 1st Order) top

GOVERNMENTS(7, 0 Order)

( GOVERNMENTS )(7, 0 Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, REVENUE )(2, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, VIRUS )(1, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, KEEP )(1, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, GREAT_RECESSION )(2, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, COSTS )(1, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, CONSUMERS )(2, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, COLLAPSE )(2, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, CASCADING )(2, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, UNEMPLOYMENT )(1, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, SPENDING )(1, 1st Order) top

( GOVERNMENTS, OVERLAP )(1, 1st Order) top

ECONOMY(7, 0 Order)

( ECONOMY )(7, 0 Order) top

( ECONOMY, POLICY )(3, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, MONETARY )(3, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, ECONOMIC )(3, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, SPENDING )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, LONG-TERM )(1, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, INSURANCE )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, GROWTH )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, GREAT_RECESSION )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, CRISIS )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, COLLAPSE )(2, 1st Order) top

( ECONOMY, CASCADING )(2, 1st Order) top

COLLAPSE(7, 0 Order)

( COLLAPSE )(7, 0 Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING )(6, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, ECONOMY )(3, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, KEEP )(2, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, INSURANCE )(2, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, INDIVIDUALS )(1, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, ECONOMIC )(2, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, CONSUMERS )(2, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, BUSINESSES )(2, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, WORKERS )(1, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, UNEMPLOYMENT )(1, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, STABILIZES )(1, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, RESTRUCTURING_PHASE )(1, 2nd Order) top

( COLLAPSE, INSURANCE )(2, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, INDIVIDUALS )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, ECONOMIC )(2, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, CONSUMERS )(2, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, WORKERS )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, UNEMPLOYMENT )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, STABILIZES )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, RESTRUCTURING_PHASE )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, RESETS )(1, 1st Order) top

( COLLAPSE, RENT )(1, 1st Order) top

References

( BUSINESSES ) top
( BUSINESSES, CONSUMERS ) top
(Read more) topAfter the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited...
(Read more) top
Fiscal policy efforts are aimed at helping consumers and businesses survive financially and to get them to the other side of the crisis. Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded...
(Read more) top. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( BUSINESSES, GOVERNMENTS ) top
(Read more) topAfter the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
(Read more) top
Financial distress will also be felt by state and local governments, potentially acutely for some states and cities.
(Read more) topThis category includes, among other things, spending on infrastructure and direct grants to state and local governments.
Loans. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are...
( BUSINESSES, ECONOMY ) top
(Read more) topAfter the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase,...
(Read more) top ... at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery
(Read more) top As individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis. This means that many businesses will simply not bounce back quickly, or at all, because their customers are financially impaired and cannot resume...
( BUSINESSES, COLLAPSE ) top
(Read more) top... and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
(Read more) top
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of...
(Read more) topLoans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase.
( BUSINESSES, CASCADING ) top
(Read more) top... measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
(Read more) top
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating...
(Read more) topLoans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( BUSINESSES, SPENDING ) top
(Read more) top As individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis. This means that many businesses will simply not bounce back quickly, or at all, because their customers are financially impaired...
(Read more) topThis category includes, among other things, spending on infrastructure and direct grants to state and local governments.
Loans. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in...
( BUSINESSES, POLICY ) top
(Read more) top
Fiscal policy efforts are aimed at helping consumers and businesses survive financially and to get them to the other side of the crisis
(Read more) top Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What...
( BUSINESSES, KEEP ) top
(Read more) top Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a...
(Read more) top. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( BUSINESSES, INSURANCE ) top
(Read more) top Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading...
(Read more) top
Many businesses will have similar challenges with cash flow to make monthly payments for wages, rents, insurance, loans, etc.
( BUSINESSES, INDIVIDUALS ) top
(Read more) topAs individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis
(Read more) topThat is, loans to businesses and individuals help them to stay afloat during the crisis and get to the other side; but loans do not necessarily assist in a rapid restart of businesses
(Read more) topBut the credit quality of their loan portfolios may be severely diminished, and some borrowers, individuals and businesses will miss loan and mortgage payments. Unless new loans are guaranteed by the Federal Government, such as the paycheck protection program loans to small businesses, banks are going to be...
( BUSINESSES, FEDERAL_GOVERNMENT ) top
(Read more) topBut the credit quality of their loan portfolios may be severely diminished, and some borrowers, individuals and businesses will miss loan and mortgage payments. Unless new loans are guaranteed by the Federal Government, such as the paycheck protection program loans to small businesses, banks are going to be extremely cautious in extending new credit until they are sure the risk of default or client bankruptcy is very...
(Read more) top. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( BUSINESSES, ECONOMIC ) top
(Read more) top ... while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery.
( GOVERNMENTS ) top
( GOVERNMENTS, REVENUE ) top
(Read more) top This was a big item following the Great Recession, and it is expected to be significant again in 2020-2021. In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines. Against the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment...
(Read more) top The third fiscal stimulus package for $2 trillion included $150 billion in grants for states and local governments. However, this appropriation is unlikely to fill the revenue gap and much more may be requested at a later date since alternative revenue sources such as tax increases are not feasible at this time.
We note that in the aftermath of the Great Recession,...
( GOVERNMENTS, VIRUS ) top
(Read more) top In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines. Against the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment insurance costs borne by state and local governments
( GOVERNMENTS, KEEP ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , KEEP )
( GOVERNMENTS, GREAT_RECESSION ) top
(Read more) topThis was a big item following the Great Recession, and it is expected to be significant again in 2020-2021. In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines
(Read more) top
We note that in the aftermath of the Great Recession, around 850,000 jobs were lost at the state and local government level, with the losses accumulating all the way through 2013, several years after the depths of the crisis
( GOVERNMENTS, COSTS ) top
(Read more) top In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines. Against the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment insurance costs borne by state and local governments
( GOVERNMENTS, CONSUMERS ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , CONSUMERS )
( GOVERNMENTS, COLLAPSE ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , COLLAPSE )
( GOVERNMENTS, CASCADING ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , CASCADING )
( GOVERNMENTS, UNEMPLOYMENT ) top
(Read more) topAgainst the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment insurance costs borne by state and local governments.
( GOVERNMENTS, SPENDING ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , SPENDING )
( GOVERNMENTS, OVERLAP ) top
(Read more) top
There is considerable overlap between the financial distress and restructuring phase as it evolves into the network rebuilding phase
( ECONOMY ) top
( ECONOMY, POLICY ) top
(Read more) topThese are highly important monetary and fiscal policy programs as they seek to mitigate the damage and put a higher floor under the economy than might otherwise have occurred without this assistance.
The economic support programs from the central...
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , POLICY )
(Read more) top
There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium
( ECONOMY, MONETARY ) top
(Read more) topThese are highly important monetary and fiscal policy programs as they seek to mitigate the damage and put a higher floor under the economy than might otherwise have occurred without this assistance.
The economic support programs...
(Read more) top ... is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery
(Read more) top
There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium
( ECONOMY, ECONOMIC ) top
(Read more) top
The economic support programs from the central bank are focused on maintaining the smooth functioning of financial markets so there is not a banking system failure, as there was in the financial panic of September...
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , ECONOMIC )
(Read more) top Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors
( ECONOMY, SPENDING ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , SPENDING )
(Read more) top
New fiscal spending.
( ECONOMY, LONG-TERM ) top
(Read more) top ... from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery.
( ECONOMY, INSURANCE ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , INSURANCE )
( ECONOMY, GROWTH ) top
(Read more) top
There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium. Some policies will work well and others may not be as effective as hoped.
New fiscal spending
(Read more) top Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors
( ECONOMY, GREAT_RECESSION ) top
(Read more) top... the central bank are focused on maintaining the smooth functioning of financial markets so there is not a banking system failure, as there was in the financial panic of September 2008 that led to the Great Recession.
(Read more) top ... US Treasuries are not likely to help to the economy, although they can reduce fixed-income and equity market volatility. Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this...
( ECONOMY, CRISIS ) top
(Read more) top As individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis. This means that many businesses will simply not bounce back quickly, or at all, because their customers are financially impaired and cannot resume consumption patterns at the previous pace.
Many...
(Read more) top ... did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors.
( ECONOMY, COLLAPSE ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , COLLAPSE )
(Read more) topImportantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will remain far from equilibrium...
( ECONOMY, CASCADING ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , CASCADING )
(Read more) topImportantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will...
( COLLAPSE ) top
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING ) top
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, ECONOMY ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , ECONOMY )
(Read more) topImportantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
After...
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, KEEP ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , KEEP )
(Read more) topLoans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, INSURANCE ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , INSURANCE )
(Read more) top
Some individuals will not be able to pay rent, utilities, insurance premiums, car loans, mortgages, etc.
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, INDIVIDUALS ) top
(Read more) top Essentially, this is a phase of financial distress and restructuring. Companies and individuals will be sorting out the damage from the cascading network collapse phase. This new phase includes the potential for defaults, bankruptcies, and significant corporate restructuring.
Some individuals...
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, ECONOMIC ) top
(Read more) top. Our economic system is a myriad of interconnected parts. We have disruptions in supply chains, transportation, consumer demand, etc., that feed on themselves
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , ECONOMIC )
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, CONSUMERS ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , CONSUMERS )
(Read more) topLoans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, BUSINESSES ) top
(Read more) topAfter the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
(Read more) topLoans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, WORKERS ) top
(Read more) top Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed...
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, UNEMPLOYMENT ) top
(Read more) top Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of...
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, STABILIZES ) top
(Read more) top
After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will remain far from equilibrium as it stabilizes at a lower level of output and experiences severe financial distress.
( COLLAPSE, CASCADING, RESTRUCTURING_PHASE ) top
(Read more) top
Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will remain far from equilibrium as it stabilizes at a lower level of output and experiences severe financial distress
( COLLAPSE, INSURANCE ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , INSURANCE )
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , INSURANCE )
( COLLAPSE, INDIVIDUALS ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , INDIVIDUALS )
( COLLAPSE, ECONOMIC ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , ECONOMIC )
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , ECONOMIC )
( COLLAPSE, CONSUMERS ) top
(Read more) top See ( BUSINESSES , CONSUMERS )
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , CONSUMERS )
( COLLAPSE, WORKERS ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , WORKERS )
( COLLAPSE, UNEMPLOYMENT ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , UNEMPLOYMENT )
( COLLAPSE, STABILIZES ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , STABILIZES )
( COLLAPSE, RESTRUCTURING_PHASE ) top
(Read more) top See ( COLLAPSE , CASCADING , RESTRUCTURING_PHASE )
( COLLAPSE, RESETS ) top
(Read more) topImportantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
After the...
( COLLAPSE, RENT ) top
(Read more) top
Some individuals will not be able to pay rent, utilities, insurance premiums, car loans, mortgages, etc.