Logical Analysis Report

Key Focus

This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries.
That's one reason multi-country comparisons have struggled to identify dynamics that sufficiently explain the trajectories of different places.
Once we recognize super-spreading as a key lever, countries that look as if they were too relaxed in some aspects appear very different, and our usual polarized debates about the pandemic are scrambled, too
From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict.
In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries

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High Level Topics

SUPER-SPREADING

OVERDISPERSION

OVERDISPERSED

JAPAN

High Level Abstractions

SUPER-SPREADING(9, 0 Order)

( SUPER-SPREADING )(9, 0 Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, COUNTRIES )(4, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, COVID-19 )(2, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, OVERDISPERSION )(2, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, OVERDISPERSED )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, EUROPEAN )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, VIRUS )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, VIROLOGY )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, UNIVERSITY )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, SUPER-SPREADS )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, SUPER-SPREADER )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, SOCIAL-DISTANCING )(1, 1st Order) top

( SUPER-SPREADING, SARS-COV-2 )(1, 1st Order) top

OVERDISPERSION(6, 0 Order)

( OVERDISPERSION )(6, 0 Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, COVID-19 )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, JAPAN )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, VIRUS )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, STAY-AT-HOME )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, SOCIAL-DISTANCING )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, LAX )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, INTERACTED )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, EXPOSURES )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, DESIRABLE )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, COUNTRIES )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSION, CLUSTER-BUSTING )(1, 1st Order) top

OVERDISPERSED(5, 0 Order)

( OVERDISPERSED )(5, 0 Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, PCR )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, JAPAN )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, INDIVIDUALS )(2, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, USEFULNESS )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, UNITED_STATES )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, TRAJECTORIES )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, TRACEABLE )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, SARS-COV-2 )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, SARS-COV )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, REGULATORY )(1, 1st Order) top

( OVERDISPERSED, POSITIVE )(1, 1st Order) top

JAPAN(5, 0 Order)

( JAPAN )(5, 0 Order) top

( JAPAN, HEALTH )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, TRAJECTORIES )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, STAY-AT-HOME )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, SEOUL )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, PATHOGEN )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, OSHITANI )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, NINE )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, NATIONAL_COVID-19_CLUSTER_TASKFORCE )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, MODEL )(1, 1st Order) top

( JAPAN, MIDDLING )(1, 1st Order) top

References

( SUPER-SPREADING ) top
( SUPER-SPREADING, COUNTRIES ) top
(Read more) top
This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries.
(Read more) top
Once we recognize super-spreading as a key lever, countries that look as if they were too relaxed in some aspects appear very different, and our usual polarized debates about the pandemic are scrambled, too
(Read more) topIn reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries
(Read more) topFrom an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict.
( SUPER-SPREADING, COVID-19 ) top
(Read more) top
In study after study, we see that super-spreading clusters of COVID-19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time.weddings, churches, choirs, gyms, funerals, restaurants, and such.especially when there is...
(Read more) top... and activity, Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews and a co-author of a recent extensive review of transmission conditions for COVID-19, told me.
Read: I have seen the future.and it's not the life we knew
Cevik identifies "prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding"...
( SUPER-SPREADING, OVERDISPERSION ) top
(Read more) top ... are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person
(Read more) topIt also encouraged social-distancing, and closed down indoor places that failed to observe the rules. From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict
( SUPER-SPREADING, OVERDISPERSED ) top
(Read more) top
Unsurprisingly, SARS-CoV, the previous incarnation of SARS-CoV-2 that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, was also overdispersed in this way: The majority of infected people did not transmit it, but a few super-spreading events caused most of the outbreaks
( SUPER-SPREADING, EUROPEAN ) top
(Read more) top... reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries. Although it did not have a complete lockdown, as Kucharski pointed out to me, Sweden imposed a 50-person limit on indoor gatherings in March, and did not remove the cap even as many other...
( SUPER-SPREADING, VIRUS ) top
(Read more) topBut, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person
( SUPER-SPREADING, VIROLOGY ) top
(Read more) top... super-spreading events to occur, multiple things have to be happening at the same time, and the risk is not equal in every setting and activity, Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews and a co-author of a recent extensive review of transmission conditions for COVID-19, told me.
Read: I have seen the future.and it's not the life...
( SUPER-SPREADING, UNIVERSITY ) top
(Read more) top... occur, multiple things have to be happening at the same time, and the risk is not equal in every setting and activity, Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews and a co-author of a recent extensive review of transmission conditions for COVID-19, told me.
Read: I have seen the future.and it's not the life we knew
Cevik...
( SUPER-SPREADING, SUPER-SPREADS ) top
(Read more) top
There may be many different reasons a pathogen super-spreads.
( SUPER-SPREADING, SUPER-SPREADER ) top
(Read more) top
Cevik identifies "prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding" as the key elements for a super-spreader event.
( SUPER-SPREADING, SOCIAL-DISTANCING ) top
(Read more) topIt also encouraged social-distancing, and closed down indoor places that failed to observe the rules. From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but...
( SUPER-SPREADING, SARS-COV-2 ) top
(Read more) top
Unsurprisingly, SARS-CoV, the previous incarnation of SARS-CoV-2 that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, was also overdispersed in this way: The majority of infected people did not transmit it, but a few super-spreading events caused most of the outbreaks
( OVERDISPERSION ) top
( OVERDISPERSION, COVID-19 ) top
(Read more) top
Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another
( OVERDISPERSION, JAPAN ) top
(Read more) top Nor could it impose a full lockdown or strict stay-at-home orders; even if that had been desirable, it would not have been legally possible in Japan.
Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one...
( OVERDISPERSION, VIRUS ) top
(Read more) top See ( SUPER-SPREADING , VIRUS )
( OVERDISPERSION, STAY-AT-HOME ) top
(Read more) top Nor could it impose a full lockdown or strict stay-at-home orders; even if that had been desirable, it would not have been legally possible in Japan.
Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early...
( OVERDISPERSION, SOCIAL-DISTANCING ) top
(Read more) top See ( SUPER-SPREADING , SOCIAL-DISTANCING )
( OVERDISPERSION, LAX ) top
(Read more) topFrom an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict.
( OVERDISPERSION, INTERACTED ) top
(Read more) top Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that's not the only way to trace contacts
( OVERDISPERSION, EXPOSURES ) top
(Read more) top Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that's not the only way to trace contacts. And, because of overdispersion, it's not necessarily where the most bang for the buck lies
( OVERDISPERSION, DESIRABLE ) top
(Read more) top Nor could it impose a full lockdown or strict stay-at-home orders; even if that had been desirable, it would not have been legally possible in Japan.
Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy...
( OVERDISPERSION, COUNTRIES ) top
(Read more) top See ( SUPER-SPREADING , COUNTRIES )
( OVERDISPERSION, CLUSTER-BUSTING ) top
(Read more) top
Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another.
( OVERDISPERSED ) top
( OVERDISPERSED, PCR ) top
(Read more) topHowever, the moment we see signs of a cluster, we can rapidly isolate everyone, again while awaiting further individualized testing via PCR tests, depending on the situation.
Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their...
( OVERDISPERSED, JAPAN ) top
(Read more) top
Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country's approach to looking at a forest...
( OVERDISPERSED, INDIVIDUALS ) top
(Read more) top R)"; in contrast, "backward tracing increases this maximum number of traceable individuals by a factor of 2-3, as index cases are more likely to come from clusters than a case is to generate a cluster."
Even in an overdispersed pandemic, it's not pointless to do forward...
(Read more) top
In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals.
( OVERDISPERSED, USEFULNESS ) top
(Read more) top... agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level usefulness for this particular overdispersed pathogen.
To return to the mysteries of this pandemic, what did happen early on to cause such drastically different trajectories in otherwise similar places
( OVERDISPERSED, UNITED_STATES ) top
(Read more) top
Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level usefulness for this particular...
( OVERDISPERSED, TRAJECTORIES ) top
(Read more) top
To return to the mysteries of this pandemic, what did happen early on to cause such drastically different trajectories in otherwise similar places.
( OVERDISPERSED, TRACEABLE ) top
(Read more) top R)"; in contrast, "backward tracing increases this maximum number of traceable individuals by a factor of 2-3, as index cases are more likely to come from clusters than a case is to generate a cluster."
Even in an overdispersed pandemic, it's not pointless...
( OVERDISPERSED, SARS-COV-2 ) top
(Read more) top See ( SUPER-SPREADING , SARS-COV-2 )
( OVERDISPERSED, SARS-COV ) top
(Read more) top
Unsurprisingly, SARS-CoV, the previous incarnation of SARS-CoV-2 that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, was also overdispersed in this way: The majority of infected people did not transmit it, but a few super-spreading events caused...
( OVERDISPERSED, REGULATORY ) top
(Read more) top
Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level...
( OVERDISPERSED, POSITIVE ) top
(Read more) top
Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level usefulness for this particular overdispersed pathogen.
To return to the mysteries of this pandemic, what did happen early...
( JAPAN ) top
( JAPAN, HEALTH ) top
(Read more) top When a series of clusters linked to nightclubs broke out in Seoul recently, health authorities aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not.a sensible response, given that...
( JAPAN, TRAJECTORIES ) top
(Read more) top
I've heard many explanations for these widely differing trajectories over the past nine months.weather, elderly populations, vitamin D, prior immunity, herd immunity.but none of them explains the timing or the scale of these drastic variations
( JAPAN, STAY-AT-HOME ) top
(Read more) top See ( OVERDISPERSION , STAY-AT-HOME )
( JAPAN, SEOUL ) top
(Read more) top When a series of clusters linked to nightclubs broke out in Seoul recently, health authorities aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not.a sensible response,...
( JAPAN, PATHOGEN ) top
(Read more) top ... aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not.a sensible response, given that we know the pathogen is airborne.
Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying...
( JAPAN, OSHITANI ) top
(Read more) top
Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact...
( JAPAN, NINE ) top
(Read more) top
I've heard many explanations for these widely differing trajectories over the past nine months.weather, elderly populations, vitamin D, prior immunity, herd immunity.but none of them explains the timing or the scale of these drastic variations
( JAPAN, NATIONAL_COVID-19_CLUSTER_TASKFORCE ) top
(Read more) top
Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country's approach...
( JAPAN, MODEL ) top
(Read more) top
Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying mass testing and never fully shutting down.
( JAPAN, MIDDLING ) top
(Read more) top
Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying mass testing and never fully shutting down