Click here for Logical Analysis ReportOp-ed:
From our analysis, we found the following most relevant:a member of a team of ordinary people who make surprisingly accurate predictions for the forecasting firm Good Judgment, Inc In recent months, businesses, governments and other institutions have worked with superforecasters like Roth to help them understand how the COVID-19 outbreak might unfold.
That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff of science fiction, or even ancient history.like the seers of old who told fortunes to kings and noblesAnd Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
However, Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're not bound to a particular discipline or approach