Complex Event Analysis - Report 2020/03/16

Momentum supporting factors

(banks, liquidity)

Challenge supporting factors

(economic, policy)

(policy, risk)

(monetary_cooperation_is_needed, policy)

(inadequately, policy)

Work-in-progress supporting factors

(industries, policy)

(debt, policy)

(banks, credit)

(credit, economy)

(banks, debt)

(economic, policy)

(credit, various)

(policy, various)

(credit, industries)

(banks, sba-subsidized)

Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT

Time Period	Challenge	Momentum	WIP
Report 2020/03/16	14.54	2.38	83.08

High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

High Level Abstraction (HLA)	Report 2020/03/16
(1) (economic,policy)	100.00
(2) (industries,policy)	59.58
(3) (debt,policy)	57.06
(4) (banks,credit)	54.88
(5) (credit,economy)	40.51
(6) (banks,debt)	35.31
(7) (credit,various)	30.57
(8) (policy,various)	30.37
(9) (credit,industries)	30.20
(10) (banks,liquidity)	27.96
(11) (banks,sba-subsidized)	27.58
(12) (policy,sba-subsidized)	27.35
(13) (banks,safety)	26.71
(14) (policy,safety)	26.48
(15) (policy,risk)	26.28
(16) (policy,politics)	26.02
(17) (monetary_cooperation_is_needed,policy)	25.78
(18) (inadequately,policy)	25.52
(19) (economy,policy)	20.21
(20) (credit,pre-existing)	16.17
(21) (credit,policy)	15.91
(22) (banks,policy)	14.37
(23) (banks,ecb)	12.49
(24) (credit,ecb)	11.99
(25) (credit,sub-zero)	11.41
(26) (credit,political)	11.15
(27) (banks,buying)	10.31
(28) (credit,liquidity)	10.19
(29) (credit,germany)	9.93
(30) (credit,frugality)	9.64
(31) (banks,bonds)	5.63
(32) (banks,businesses)	4.18
(33) (banks,sub-zero)	1.19
(34) (banks,risk)	0.64

Complex Event Analysis - REPORT 2020/03/16

Supporting narratives:

momentum (Read more)

Getting money to targeted businesses is a task the Fed is ill-suited for, but it can provide liquidity to the banks to fund those loans if needed. My suspicion is that we will see more of what I will call .protected lending programs
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,liquidity)
Inferred entity relationships (22)
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

That.s what we are struggling hard to do and are doing inadequately.
However, what I.m damned sure about is the following:
Part 2
Big Fiscal Stimulation with Monetary Cooperation Is Needed, Low-Risk, and Isn.t Yet Happening
Our biggest economic risk comes from the possibility that our elected officials (who are the ones who control fiscal policy) will handle it badly
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,policy)
(policy,risk)
(monetary_cooperation_is_needed,policy)
(inadequately,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (63)
(economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]
(economic,growth,security) [inferred]
(economic,trump) [inferred]
(economic,economy,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,president_obama) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(risk,tumor) [inferred]
(economic,growth,trump) [inferred]
(economic,labor,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(economic,economy,speech) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,venture) [inferred]
(economic,economy,energy) [inferred]
(economic,energy,workers) [inferred]
(economic,sequoia_capital) [inferred]
(economic,monetary) [inferred]
(economic,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,economy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,product) [inferred]
(economic,security) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policies) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,silicon_valley) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policy) [inferred]
(economic,growth,taxpayer_first_act) [inferred]
(economic,jobs) [inferred]
(economic,risks) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(economic,omb) [inferred]
(economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,reform) [inferred]
(economic,economy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,expansion,policy) [inferred]
(economic,federal) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(economic,growth,positive) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]
(economic,growth,prioritize) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policies,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(risk,virus) [inferred]
(economic,energy,investments) [inferred]
(economic,economy,weather) [inferred]
(economic,infrastructure) [inferred]
(economic,economy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,gdp) [inferred]
(economic,economy,governor) [inferred]
(economic,gdp,growth) [inferred]
(economic,markets) [inferred]
(economic,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(risk,service) [inferred]
(economic,economy,policy) [inferred]
(economic,roil) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

That is because it is a country that has a greater ability to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies and cut through political disputes more quickly, and it has very smart economic policy makers.
Thus far there has been a series of announced fiscal measures that have amounted to roughly 1.2% of GDP, excluding infrastructure investment
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (60)
(economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]
(economic,growth,security) [inferred]
(economic,trump) [inferred]
(economic,economy,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,president_obama) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(economic,growth,trump) [inferred]
(economic,labor,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(economic,economy,speech) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,venture) [inferred]
(economic,economy,energy) [inferred]
(economic,energy,workers) [inferred]
(economic,sequoia_capital) [inferred]
(economic,monetary) [inferred]
(economic,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,economy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,product) [inferred]
(economic,security) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policies) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,silicon_valley) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policy) [inferred]
(economic,growth,taxpayer_first_act) [inferred]
(economic,jobs) [inferred]
(economic,risks) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(economic,omb) [inferred]
(economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,reform) [inferred]
(economic,economy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,expansion,policy) [inferred]
(economic,federal) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(economic,growth,positive) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]
(economic,growth,prioritize) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policies,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,energy,investments) [inferred]
(economic,economy,weather) [inferred]
(economic,infrastructure) [inferred]
(economic,economy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,gdp) [inferred]
(economic,economy,governor) [inferred]
(economic,gdp,growth) [inferred]
(economic,markets) [inferred]
(economic,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economy,policy) [inferred]
(economic,roil) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

While some fiscal stimulation measures are being put into place, they.re not large or targeted enough to neutralize the contagion of the economic and market effects of the virus, and they are being argued about. However, there are some emerging signs that some important policy makers might move to a .whatever it takes
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (60)
(economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]
(economic,growth,security) [inferred]
(economic,trump) [inferred]
(economic,economy,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,president_obama) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(economic,growth,trump) [inferred]
(economic,labor,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(economic,economy,speech) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,venture) [inferred]
(economic,economy,energy) [inferred]
(economic,energy,workers) [inferred]
(economic,sequoia_capital) [inferred]
(economic,monetary) [inferred]
(economic,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,economy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,growth) [inferred]
(economic,growth,product) [inferred]
(economic,security) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policies) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(economic,silicon_valley) [inferred]
(economic,growth,policy) [inferred]
(economic,growth,taxpayer_first_act) [inferred]
(economic,jobs) [inferred]
(economic,risks) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(economic,omb) [inferred]
(economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,reform) [inferred]
(economic,economy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,expansion,policy) [inferred]
(economic,federal) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(economic,growth,positive) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]
(economic,growth,prioritize) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policies,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,energy,investments) [inferred]
(economic,economy,weather) [inferred]
(economic,infrastructure) [inferred]
(economic,economy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,gdp) [inferred]
(economic,economy,governor) [inferred]
(economic,gdp,growth) [inferred]
(economic,markets) [inferred]
(economic,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economy,policy) [inferred]
(economic,roil) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

I don.t yet know if the president and other fiscal policy makers have done the stress tests of various companies and various sectors of the economy as we have, or whether theirs show what ours show, but I.m seriously concerned by what I see, which is that a number of companies and industries will have debt problems that will likely lead to restructurings
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,economy)
(credit,various)
(economy,policy)
(policy,various)
Inferred entity relationships (107)
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(economy,federal) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(economy,reform,revenue) [inferred]
(economy,energy,unionized) [inferred]
(economy,growth,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,reform,taxes) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economy,fed,weather) [inferred]
(economy,fed,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,taxes) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(economy,growth,recall) [inferred]
(economy,growth,workers) [inferred]
(economy,jobs) [inferred]
(economy,growth,trade) [inferred]
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,risks) [inferred]
(economy,reform,tenths) [inferred]
(economy,global) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(economy,energy,fuel) [inferred]
(economy,wage) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_obama) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,wage) [inferred]
(economy,energy,threat) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,speech) [inferred]
(economy,reform,trade) [inferred]
(economy,lag,policy) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(economy,risks) [inferred]
(economy,energy,funding) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_trump) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,the_fed) [inferred]
(economy,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economy,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,supervisory) [inferred]
(economy,monetary) [inferred]
(economy,growth,taxes) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(economy,president_trump) [inferred]
(economy,growth,policy) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,reform) [inferred]
(economy,fed,governor) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,supervisory) [inferred]
(economy,reform,wage) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economy,energy) [inferred]
(economy,growth,president_reagan) [inferred]
(economy,reform,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,growth,workforce) [inferred]
(economy,energy,investments) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(economy,growth,usmca) [inferred]
(economy,president_trump,reform) [inferred]
(economy,energy,transportation) [inferred]
(economy,energy,jobs) [inferred]
(economy,growth,services) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,growth,ranking_member_wyden) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,weather) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,manufacturing) [inferred]
(economy,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,global,growth) [inferred]
(economy,policies) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,governor) [inferred]
(economy,growth,the_fed) [inferred]
(economy,growth,unemployment) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,spillover) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,suntrust) [inferred]
(economy,interest) [inferred]
(economy,policy,wage) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(economy,energy,workers) [inferred]
(economy,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,the_trump) [inferred]
(economy,president_obama) [inferred]
(economy,growth,space_economy_satellite_account) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_reagan) [inferred]
(economy,reform,service) [inferred]
(economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,policies) [inferred]
(economy,fed,sir) [inferred]
(economy,growth,manufacturing) [inferred]
(economy,growth,policies) [inferred]
(economy,employment,fed) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,taxes) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(economy,growth,wage) [inferred]
(economy,fed,speech) [inferred]
(economy,energy,federal) [inferred]
(economy,employment,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,solvency) [inferred]
(economy,fed,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,fed,san_francisco_fed) [inferred]
(economy,reform,republican) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

I don.t yet know if the president and other fiscal policy makers have done the stress tests of various companies and various sectors of the economy as we have, or whether theirs show what ours show, but I.m seriously concerned by what I see, which is that a number of companies and industries will have debt problems that will likely lead to restructurings.
High Level Abstractions:

(debt,policy)
(credit,industries)
(industries,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (20)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(industries,policy) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(industries,workers) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Thus far, meaningful debt supports to industries that would go broke due to this shock have been absent (other than SBA-subsidized loans, which look to be small)
High Level Abstractions:

(debt,policy)
(industries,policy)
(banks,debt)
Inferred entity relationships (32)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(debt,policy) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(industries,workers) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Thus far, meaningful debt supports to industries that would go broke due to this shock have been absent (other than SBA-subsidized loans, which look to be small). Probably the best way to do this is for the fiscal policy makers to guarantee the safety of the banks for new lending of a sort that is needed with government protections on that new lending (a politically challenging move)
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,sba-subsidized)
(banks,policy)
(policy,sba-subsidized)
(policy,safety)
(banks,safety)
Inferred entity relationships (31)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

That is because it.s tough enough to know what to do during a big crisis and then do it boldly even when there aren.t divisive politics.
High Level Abstractions:

(policy,politics)
Inferred entity relationships (7)
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Accidentally we are seeing a bit of this as troubled companies have tapped pre-existing lines of credit at banks. While this may not be what the banks want (I doubt they want to take on more credit risk when the economy is deteriorating), it is one way that money gets to those businesses that are squeezed
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,credit)
(banks,risk)
Inferred entity relationships (37)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(risk,tumor) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(risk,virus) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(risk,service) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

As far as I can see, the best path is to do all these things I just mentioned plus provide support to the banks in conjunction with the fiscal authorities providing fiscal protections that will help the credit get to those who need it most.
In Europe:
The European Commission is expected to grant maximum flexibility from the EU rules, most importantly the fiscal rules associated with the Stability and Growth Pact
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,credit)
Inferred entity relationships (33)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

More specifically, she kept ECB rates at -0.5% and launched a package of measures to alleviate the economic impact of the coronavirus: providing liquidity and a bit more credit by buying .120 billion ($133.9 billion) more bonds by the end of the year and launching a new program to offer cheap loans to banks (at rates as low as -0.75%, below the ECB.s sub-zero deposit rate).
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,sub-zero)
(banks,credit)
Inferred entity relationships (33)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Probably the best way to do this is for the fiscal policy makers to guarantee the safety of the banks for new lending of a sort that is needed with government protections on that new lending (a politically challenging move). Accidentally we are seeing a bit of this as troubled companies have tapped pre-existing lines of credit at banks. While this may not be what the banks want (I doubt they want to take on more credit risk when the economy is deteriorating), it is one way that money gets to those businesses that are squeezed
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,pre-existing)
Inferred entity relationships (10)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Still, not all of the squeezed companies have pre-existing lines of credit, so large gaps are likely to remain, and they will come with significant costs.
I don.t yet know if the president and other fiscal policy makers have done the stress tests of various companies and various sectors of the economy as we have, or whether theirs show what ours show, but I.m seriously concerned by what I see, which is that a number of companies and industries will have debt problems that will likely lead to restructurings
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (18)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Accidentally we are seeing a bit of this as troubled companies have tapped pre-existing lines of credit at banks. While this may not be what the banks want (I doubt they want to take on more credit risk when the economy is deteriorating), it is one way that money gets to those businesses that are squeezed.
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,economy)
Inferred entity relationships (98)
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(economy,federal) [inferred]
(economy,reform,revenue) [inferred]
(economy,energy,unionized) [inferred]
(economy,growth,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,reform,taxes) [inferred]
(economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economy,fed,weather) [inferred]
(economy,fed,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,taxes) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(economy,growth,recall) [inferred]
(economy,growth,workers) [inferred]
(economy,jobs) [inferred]
(economy,growth,trade) [inferred]
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,risks) [inferred]
(economy,reform,tenths) [inferred]
(economy,global) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(economy,energy,fuel) [inferred]
(economy,wage) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_obama) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,wage) [inferred]
(economy,energy,threat) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,speech) [inferred]
(economy,reform,trade) [inferred]
(economy,lag,policy) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(economy,risks) [inferred]
(economy,energy,funding) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_trump) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,the_fed) [inferred]
(economy,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economy,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,supervisory) [inferred]
(economy,monetary) [inferred]
(economy,growth,taxes) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(economy,president_trump) [inferred]
(economy,growth,policy) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,reform) [inferred]
(economy,fed,governor) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,supervisory) [inferred]
(economy,reform,wage) [inferred]
(economy,energy) [inferred]
(economy,growth,president_reagan) [inferred]
(economy,reform,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,growth,workforce) [inferred]
(economy,energy,investments) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(economy,growth,usmca) [inferred]
(economy,president_trump,reform) [inferred]
(economy,energy,transportation) [inferred]
(economy,energy,jobs) [inferred]
(economy,growth,services) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,growth,ranking_member_wyden) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,weather) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,manufacturing) [inferred]
(economy,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,global,growth) [inferred]
(economy,policies) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,governor) [inferred]
(economy,growth,the_fed) [inferred]
(economy,growth,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,spillover) [inferred]
(economy,federal_reserve,suntrust) [inferred]
(economy,interest) [inferred]
(economy,policy,wage) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(economy,energy,workers) [inferred]
(economy,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,the_trump) [inferred]
(economy,president_obama) [inferred]
(economy,growth,space_economy_satellite_account) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,president_reagan) [inferred]
(economy,reform,service) [inferred]
(economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,policies) [inferred]
(economy,fed,sir) [inferred]
(economy,growth,manufacturing) [inferred]
(economy,growth,policies) [inferred]
(economy,employment,fed) [inferred]
(economy,jobs,taxes) [inferred]
(economy,growth,wage) [inferred]
(economy,fed,speech) [inferred]
(economy,energy,federal) [inferred]
(economy,employment,policy) [inferred]
(economy,fed,solvency) [inferred]
(economy,fed,unemployment) [inferred]
(economy,fed,san_francisco_fed) [inferred]
(economy,reform,republican) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

More specifically, she kept ECB rates at -0.5% and launched a package of measures to alleviate the economic impact of the coronavirus: providing liquidity and a bit more credit by buying .120 billion ($133.9 billion) more bonds by the end of the year and launching a new program to offer cheap loans to banks (at rates as low as -0.75%, below the ECB.s sub-zero deposit rate)
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,buying)
(banks,bonds)
(banks,ecb)
(credit,ecb)
(banks,liquidity)
(credit,liquidity)
Inferred entity relationships (35)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(bonds,energy,fuels) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

We will have to see how all the political players (most importantly the European Commission and Italian government) work this out.
In Germany:
The Germans started approaching this crisis with their usual frugality that put not creating a lot of money and credit during times of financial stress above all else, but now they appear to be flipping to doing .whatever it takes
High Level Abstractions:

(credit,political)
(credit,frugality)
(credit,germany)
Inferred entity relationships (12)
(credit,ecb) [inferred]
(credit,various) [inferred]
(credit,industries) [inferred]
(political,trump) [inferred]
(credit,sub-zero) [inferred]
(credit,economy) [inferred]
(credit,frugality) [inferred]
(credit,germany) [inferred]
(credit,liquidity) [inferred]
(credit,policy) [inferred]
(credit,pre-existing) [inferred]
(credit,political) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

In summary, I believe that 1) the 0% interest rate floor and the absence of other effective central bank tools requires much greater fiscal stimulation that is targeted to hit the most important pain points, with the cooperation of central banks holding rates down and providing plenty of liquidity, 2) the response thus far has been inadequate in size, focus, and coordination but that has varied a lot by country, 3) in the last few days there have been signs of fiscal and monetary policy makers moving to much stronger .do whatever it takes
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,liquidity)
Inferred entity relationships (22)
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

In summary, I believe that 1) the 0% interest rate floor and the absence of other effective central bank tools requires much greater fiscal stimulation that is targeted to hit the most important pain points, with the cooperation of central banks holding rates down and providing plenty of liquidity, 2) the response thus far has been inadequate in size, focus, and coordination but that has varied a lot by country, 3) in the last few days there have been signs of fiscal and monetary policy makers moving to much stronger .do whatever it takes.
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (30)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(policy,trade) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(policy,safety) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(policy,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(policy,wage) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(policy,politics) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(policy,various) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

The printing of money and buying of debt assets that central banks are now allowed to buy almost certainly won.t work much (because bonds can.t be pushed much higher and they are also less likely to be sold to buy other assets of entities that are in financial trouble)
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,buying)
(banks,bonds)
(banks,debt)
Inferred entity relationships (25)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(debt,policy) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(bonds,energy,fuels) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Getting money to targeted businesses is a task the Fed is ill-suited for, but it can provide liquidity to the banks to fund those loans if needed
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,businesses)
Inferred entity relationships (35)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,transportation) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,trade-in) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,low-) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(businesses,commercial,energy) [inferred]
(banks,sub-zero) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,homeowners) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,weatherizing) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,vehicles) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(businesses,investments) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,federal) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,families) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(businesses,capital) [inferred]
(businesses,energy,moderate-income) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(businesses,revenue) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

More specifically, she kept ECB rates at -0.5% and launched a package of measures to alleviate the economic impact of the coronavirus: providing liquidity and a bit more credit by buying .120 billion ($133.9 billion) more bonds by the end of the year and launching a new program to offer cheap loans to banks (at rates as low as -0.75%, below the ECB.s sub-zero deposit rate). But it was made clear that the ECB isn.t going to do anything much other than add liquidity because it can.t
High Level Abstractions:

(banks,sub-zero)
Inferred entity relationships (22)
(banks,liquidity) [inferred]
(banks,risk) [inferred]
(banks,crisis) [inferred]
(banks,policy) [inferred]
(banks,regulators) [inferred]
(banks,economy,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,fed) [inferred]
(banks,businesses) [inferred]
(banks,federal_reserve) [inferred]
(banks,safety) [inferred]
(banks,volcker_rule) [inferred]
(banks,buying) [inferred]
(banks,ecb) [inferred]
(banks,keep) [inferred]
(banks,the_fed) [inferred]
(banks,bonds) [inferred]
(banks,risks) [inferred]
(banks,interest) [inferred]
(banks,sba-subsidized) [inferred]
(banks,credit) [inferred]
(banks,economy) [inferred]
(banks,debt) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

While what I don.t know is much greater than what I know, I will tell you what I think for you to take or leave as you like.
As you know, for some time now I have been concerned that when the next economic downturn would come it would lead to hitting the 0% interest rate floor with a lot of debt outstanding and big wealth and political gaps in the same way that configuration of events happened in the 1930s
High Level Abstractions:

(interest)
Inferred entity relationships (3)
(interest,monetary) [inferred]
(interest,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(interest,policy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

Hitting this 0% floor also means that virtually all the reserve country central banks. interest rate stimulation tools (including cutting rates and yield curve guidance) won.t work. The printing of money and buying of debt assets that central banks are now allowed to buy almost certainly won.t work much (because bonds can.t be pushed much higher and they are also less likely to be sold to buy other assets of entities that are in financial trouble)
High Level Abstractions:

(interest)
Inferred entity relationships (3)
(interest,monetary) [inferred]
(interest,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(interest,policy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

As for the Federal Reserve, it just did about all that it can do in being stimulative without moving to doing what I call Monetary Policy 3 (which is working with fiscal policy makers to monetize their deficits). The first (and preferred) type of monetary policy (MP1) primarily uses interest rates as the control mechanism. When that stops working, they go to the printing of money and buying financial assets which I call MP2
High Level Abstractions:

(interest)
Inferred entity relationships (3)
(interest,monetary) [inferred]
(interest,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(interest,policy) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

It is in my opinion appropriate in light of the full picture.
In summary, I believe that 1) the 0% interest rate floor and the absence of other effective central bank tools requires much greater fiscal stimulation that is targeted to hit the most important pain points, with the cooperation of central banks holding rates down and providing plenty of liquidity, 2) the response thus far has been inadequate in size, focus, and coordination but that has varied a lot by country, 3) in the last few days there have been signs of fiscal and monetary policy makers moving to much stronger .do whatever it takes
High Level Abstractions:

(interest)
Inferred entity relationships (3)
(interest,monetary) [inferred]
(interest,monetary,policy) [inferred]
(interest,policy) [inferred]

Target rule match count: 209.0 Challenge: 0.07 Momentum: 0.01 WIP: 0.42