Complex Event Analysis - Report 2020/03/27

Key Focus

  • NMC discovered more than $4bn of loans it says it had no knowledge of before the Muddy Waters report.
    Shorting is tough in any market, but even more so when, for years, stocks charged to new record highs week after week.
    Before the coronavirus-driven market rout, "there were companies that were clearly problematic companies but wouldn't make a good activist short piece, because investors were so anaesthetised to risk, it really had to be an exceptional situation", such as Burford and NMC Health, he said, "to get traction in the marketplace".
    That is why he says that if there is a silver lining to the pandemic-fuelled tailspin in markets, it is that fraudulent companies will perhaps no longer be able to hide under more than a decade of "extra stimulative policy".
    "That's the economic playbook we've been employing since the bubble burst," he said
  • Markets just got pushed higher and higher and people pushed uncomfortable info out of their heads."
    He says the market rout might not have been so pronounced if central bank policy had not enabled market participants'disregard of risk.
  • No momentum supporting factor found

    Challenge supporting factors

  • (markets, policy)
  • (markets, tulip)
  • (short-sellers, tulip)
  • (markets, the_dutch)
  • (markets, tailspin)
  • (regulators, short-sellers)
  • (markets, short-sellers)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (carson_block, short-sellers)
  • (markets, policy)
  • (markets, volumes)
  • (markets, various)
  • (bear, short-sellers)
  • (markets, trading)
  • (policy, short-sellers)
  • (regulators, short-sellers)
  • (short-sellers, warning)
  • (short-sellers, vindicated)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report 2020/03/2733.33 0.00 66.67

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report 2020/03/27
    (1) (markets,policy)100.00
    (2) (carson_block,short-sellers)53.85
    (3) (markets,volumes)46.15
    (4) (markets,various)43.59
    (5) (bear,short-sellers)43.59
    (6) (markets,tulip)41.03
    (7) (short-sellers,tulip)38.46
    (8) (markets,trading)35.90
    (9) (regulators,short-sellers)33.33
    (10) (markets,the_dutch)33.33
    (11) (markets,tailspin)30.77
    (12) (policy,short-sellers)23.08
    (13) (markets,short-sellers)7.69
    (14) (short-sellers,warning)5.13
    (15) (short-sellers,vindicated)2.56

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT 2020/03/27

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    Supporting narratives:

    • challenge (Read more)
      • NMC discovered more than $4bn of loans it says it had no knowledge of before the Muddy Waters report.
        Shorting is tough in any market, but even more so when, for years, stocks charged to new record highs week after week.
        Before the coronavirus-driven market rout, "there were companies that were clearly problematic companies but wouldn't make a good activist short piece, because investors were so anaesthetised to risk, it really had to be an exceptional situation", such as Burford and NMC Health, he said, "to get traction in the marketplace".
        That is why he says that if there is a silver lining to the pandemic-fuelled tailspin in markets, it is that fraudulent companies will perhaps no longer be able to hide under more than a decade of "extra stimulative policy".
        "That's the economic playbook we've been employing since the bubble burst," he said
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (markets,policy)
        • (markets,tailspin)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • But blame is often put on short-sellers when markets go south, a refrain that goes back hundreds of years. The Dutch banned shorting during the tulip bubble in the early 1600s.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (short-sellers,tulip)
        • (markets,tulip)
        • (markets,the_dutch)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Napoleon called short-sellers treasonous. Regulators in the US and the UK banned shorting of financial stocks during the 2008 crash.
        And despite evidence that questions their effectiveness, bans on shorting are currently being enacted in Italy, France, Belgium and Spain.
        Block says bans exacerbate sell-offs, hurting long investors, too
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (regulators,short-sellers)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Markets just got pushed higher and higher and people pushed uncomfortable info out of their heads."
        He says the market rout might not have been so pronounced if central bank policy had not enabled market participants'disregard of risk. But blame is often put on short-sellers when markets go south, a refrain that goes back hundreds of years. The Dutch banned shorting during the tulip bubble in the early 1600s
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (markets,short-sellers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Markets just got pushed higher and higher and people pushed uncomfortable info out of their heads."
        He says the market rout might not have been so pronounced if central bank policy had not enabled market participants'disregard of risk.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (markets,policy)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "If we can clear the playing field of players that are divorced from corporate fundamentals, and we have restraint, this could be a great environment."
        "For years, we've been looking at trading volumes and it was clear there would be a major unwind," he said.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (markets,trading)
        • (markets,volumes)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Intrum declined to comment for this story.
        "With various quant funds getting hit on the chin here, and what I expect will be decreasing prominence of passive index funds
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (markets,various)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • 'Look in the mirror': Carson Block blasts short-selling critics
        'You can't classify me as a bear', says high-profile short-seller, 'you can classify me as someone who has for a long time thought very little of this was real'
        Short-seller Carson Block did not see the global Covid-19 pandemic fallout coming
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (carson_block,short-sellers)
        • (bear,short-sellers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • But that said, when it comes to our business, there should be a lot of opportunities for us when the dust settles."
        So how should we now think of Carson Block, one of the world's most famous short-sellers. Is he the classic vindicated bear.
        "You can't classify me as a bear," he says
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (carson_block,short-sellers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • But that said, when it comes to our business, there should be a lot of opportunities for us when the dust settles."
        So how should we now think of Carson Block, one of the world's most famous short-sellers. Is he the classic vindicated bear.
        "You can't classify me as a bear," he says.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (bear,short-sellers)
        • (short-sellers,vindicated)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • But he has been warning about market complacency for years.
        And that is why criticism of short-sellers, growing louder from regulators and governments during this month's massive stock market jolts, gets him particularly riled up.
        "When people who have some say in policy and some influence are lecturing short-sellers, I say 'Look in the mirror'," Block said by phone from San Francisco.
        He raises his voice a little: "Look at all this fragility in the system
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (regulators,short-sellers)
        • (policy,short-sellers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Markets just got pushed higher and higher and people pushed uncomfortable info out of their heads."
        He says the market rout might not have been so pronounced if central bank policy had not enabled market participants'disregard of risk. But blame is often put on short-sellers when markets go south, a refrain that goes back hundreds of years
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (policy,short-sellers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • 'Look in the mirror': Carson Block blasts short-selling critics
        'You can't classify me as a bear', says high-profile short-seller, 'you can classify me as someone who has for a long time thought very little of this was real'
        Short-seller Carson Block did not see the global Covid-19 pandemic fallout coming. But he has been warning about market complacency for years.
        And that is why criticism of short-sellers, growing louder from regulators and governments during this month's massive stock market jolts, gets him particularly riled up.
        "When people who have some say in policy and some influence are lecturing short-sellers, I say 'Look in the mirror'," Block said by phone from San Francisco.
        He raises his voice a little: "Look at all this fragility in the system
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (short-sellers,warning)

    Target rule match count: 15.0 Challenge: 0.17 Momentum: 0.00 WIP: 0.33