Complex Event Analysis - Report 2020/03/30

Key Focus

In the case of the current crisis, the risk that the financial system will reverse-infect the real economy and cause a depression is too big to ignore.
That brings us to the third analytical priority: the economics of circuit breakers. Here, the question is not just what emergency policy interventions can achieve, but also what lies beyond their reach, and when.
To be sure, given that simultaneous economic and financial deleveraging would have disastrous implications for societal wellbeing, the current moment clearly demands a "whatever-it-takes," "all-in," and "whole-of-government" policy approach

Of particular concern now are the economics of viral contagion, of fear, and of "circuit breakers." The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.
phelps28 GettyImages212928654
Insuring the Survival of Post-Pandemic Economies
ROMAN FRYDMAN & EDMUND S. PHELPS see major shortcomings in the just-adopted $2 trillion US rescue and stimulus package.
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That response is set to be both novel and inevitably costly

No momentum supporting factor found

Challenge supporting factors

(breakers, economic, economics, policy)

(breakers, economic, societal)

(breakers, economic, economics, societal)

(economic, economics, societal)

(breakers, economic, policy, societal)

(economic, economics, policy, societal)

(economic, policy, societal)

(breakers, economic, simultaneous)

(breakers, economic, economics, simultaneous)

(economic, economics, simultaneous)

Work-in-progress supporting factors

(breakers, crisis, economics, risk)

(crisis, economics, risk)

(breakers, crisis, policy, risk)

(crisis, policy, risk)

(crisis, risk)

(breakers, economic, risk)

(crisis, economic, risk)

(breakers, economic, economics, risk)

(economic, economics, risk)

(breakers, economic, policy, risk)

Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT

Time Period	Challenge	Momentum	WIP
Report 2020/03/30	67.37	0.00	32.63

High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

High Level Abstraction (HLA)	Report 2020/03/30
(1) (breakers,economic,economics,policy)	100.00
(2) (breakers,economic,societal)	47.23
(3) (breakers,economic,economics,societal)	46.93
(4) (economic,economics,societal)	45.39
(5) (breakers,economic,policy,societal)	44.83
(6) (economic,economics,policy,societal)	43.70
(7) (economic,policy,societal)	43.08
(8) (breakers,economic,simultaneous)	42.06
(9) (breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous)	41.70
(10) (economic,economics,simultaneous)	40.16
(11) (breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous)	39.60
(12) (economic,economics,policy,simultaneous)	38.47
(13) (economic,policy,simultaneous)	37.86
(14) (economic,simultaneous,societal)	37.50
(15) (breakers,crisis,economics,risk)	37.14
(16) (crisis,economics,risk)	36.22
(17) (breakers,crisis,policy,risk)	35.55
(18) (crisis,policy,risk)	35.09
(19) (crisis,risk)	34.99
(20) (breakers,economic,risk)	34.27
(21) (crisis,economic,risk)	33.71
(22) (breakers,economic,economics,risk)	33.40
(23) (economic,economics,risk)	31.86
(24) (breakers,economic,policy,risk)	31.30
(25) (economic,economics,policy,risk)	30.12
(26) (economic,policy,risk)	29.46
(27) (economic,risk)	29.00
(28) (breakers,crisis,economics,reverse-infect)	28.69
(29) (crisis,economics,reverse-infect)	27.77
(30) (breakers,crisis,policy,reverse-infect)	27.10
(31) (crisis,policy,reverse-infect)	26.69
(32) (breakers,economic,reverse-infect)	25.97
(33) (crisis,economic,reverse-infect)	25.46
(34) (breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect)	25.20
(35) (economic,economics,reverse-infect)	23.67
(36) (breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect)	23.10
(37) (economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect)	21.98
(38) (economic,policy,reverse-infect)	21.36
(39) (breakers,crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies)	20.70
(40) (crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies)	19.77
(41) (breakers,crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies)	19.11
(42) (crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies)	18.70
(43) (breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies)	17.98
(44) (breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies)	17.67
(45) (economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies)	16.14
(46) (breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies)	15.57
(47) (economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies)	14.45
(48) (economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies)	13.88
(49) (crisis,growth,political)	13.32
(50) (crisis,political)	13.11
(51) (crisis,economic,political)	12.91
(52) (economic,political)	12.50
(53) (economic,political,societal)	12.35
(54) (crisis,growth,societal)	12.14
(55) (crisis,economic,societal)	11.68
(56) (crisis,growth,reverberate)	11.53
(57) (crisis,economic,reverberate)	11.17
(58) (economic,reverberate,societal)	10.91
(59) (crisis,growth,project_syndicate)	10.81
(60) (crisis,economic,project_syndicate)	10.45
(61) (economic,project_syndicate,societal)	10.14
(62) (crisis,economic,high-quality_commentary)	9.84
(63) (economic,high-quality_commentary,societal)	9.38
(64) (crisis,economic,global)	9.32
(65) (economic,virus)	8.86
(66) (breakers,crisis,economics,policy)	8.66
(67) (crisis,economics,policy)	7.74
(68) (breakers,crisis,economics,just-adopted)	7.43
(69) (crisis,economics,just-adopted)	6.51
(70) (breakers,crisis,just-adopted,policy)	5.79
(71) (breakers,crisis,economics,informs)	5.53
(72) (crisis,economics,informs)	4.61
(73) (breakers,crisis,informs,policy)	3.89
(74) (breakers,crisis,economics,fear)	3.64
(75) (breakers,crisis,fear,policy)	2.31
(76) (crisis,economies)	2.00
(77) (crisis,economies,growth)	1.84
(78) (crisis,economy)	1.79
(79) (crisis,economy,policy)	1.54
(80) (crisis,economic,policy)	1.08
(81) (crisis,global,growth)	0.10

Complex Event Analysis - REPORT 2020/03/30

Supporting narratives:

challenge (Read more)

Of particular concern now are the economics of viral contagion, of fear, and of "circuit breakers." The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.
phelps28 GettyImages212928654
Insuring the Survival of Post-Pandemic Economies
ROMAN FRYDMAN & EDMUND S. PHELPS see major shortcomings in the just-adopted $2 trillion US rescue and stimulus package.
3
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That response is set to be both novel and inevitably costly
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,crisis,economics,policy)
(breakers,crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,crisis,just-adopted,policy)
(breakers,crisis,informs,policy)
(crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,economic,economics,policy)
(breakers,crisis,fear,policy)
(breakers,crisis,economics,just-adopted)
(crisis,economics,just-adopted)
(crisis,economics,informs)
(economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,crisis,economics,fear)
(crisis,economics,policy)
(breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies)
(crisis,economic,policy)
(breakers,crisis,economics,informs)
(crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies)
(breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies)
(economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies)
Inferred entity relationships (69)
(breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,just-adopted) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,just-adopted) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,simultaneous) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,political) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,fear,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,informs) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,project_syndicate) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(crisis,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,fear) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,just-adopted,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,global) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,high-quality_commentary) [inferred]
(economic,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,informs) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,informs,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverberate) [inferred]
(economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

In the case of the current crisis, the risk that the financial system will reverse-infect the real economy and cause a depression is too big to ignore.
That brings us to the third analytical priority: the economics of circuit breakers. Here, the question is not just what emergency policy interventions can achieve, but also what lies beyond their reach, and when.
To be sure, given that simultaneous economic and financial deleveraging would have disastrous implications for societal wellbeing, the current moment clearly demands a "whatever-it-takes," "all-in," and "whole-of-government" policy approach
High Level Abstractions:

(breakers,economic,economics,policy)
Inferred entity relationships (25)
(breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

Here, the question is not just what emergency policy interventions can achieve, but also what lies beyond their reach, and when.
To be sure, given that simultaneous economic and financial deleveraging would have disastrous implications for societal wellbeing, the current moment clearly demands a "whatever-it-takes," "all-in," and "whole-of-government" policy approach
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,economics,policy,societal)
(economic,economics,policy,simultaneous)
(breakers,economic,societal)
(economic,simultaneous,societal)
(economic,economics,societal)
(economic,policy,simultaneous)
(breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous)
(economic,economics,simultaneous)
(breakers,economic,economics,societal)
(breakers,economic,policy,societal)
(economic,policy,societal)
(breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous)
(breakers,economic,simultaneous)
Inferred entity relationships (39)
(breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,simultaneous,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

In the years since the global financial crisis in 2008, these problems have deepened political and societal divisions, undermined financial stability, and made it more difficult to confront the unprecedented crisis that is now knocking down our door.
Support High-Quality Commentary
As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, and its effects reverberate around the world, Project Syndicate is delivering the expert scientific, economic, and political insights that people need
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,high-quality_commentary,societal)
(crisis,economic,political)
(crisis,economic,high-quality_commentary)
(crisis,economic,reverberate)
(economic,political)
(crisis,growth,project_syndicate)
(crisis,political)
(crisis,economic,societal)
(crisis,growth,societal)
(crisis,economic,project_syndicate)
(economic,political,societal)
(crisis,economic,global)
(crisis,growth,political)
(crisis,growth,reverberate)
(economic,project_syndicate,societal)
(economic,reverberate,societal)
Inferred entity relationships (18)
(crisis,economic,project_syndicate) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(crisis,growth,project_syndicate) [inferred]
(economic,project_syndicate,societal) [inferred]
(economic,political,societal) [inferred]
(economic,political) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,global) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,high-quality_commentary) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,political) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,risk) [inferred]
(economic,reverberate,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,growth,reverberate) [inferred]
(crisis,growth,political) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverberate) [inferred]
(crisis,growth,societal) [inferred]
(economic,high-quality_commentary,societal) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

As a result, there has been a rapid contraction of economic activity (and therefore economic wellbeing).
As for the severity and duration of the coming recession, all will depend on the success of the health-policy response, particularly on efforts to identify and contain the spread of the virus, treat the ill, and enhance immunity.
High Level Abstractions:

(economic,virus)

challenge (Read more)

In pursuing these avenues of inquiry, many researchers in advanced economies will find themselves inevitably rubbing up against development economics - from crisis management and market failures to overcoming adjustment fatigue and putting in place better foundations for structurally sound, sustainable, and inclusive growth
High Level Abstractions:

(crisis,economies,growth)
(crisis,economies)
Inferred entity relationships (2)
(crisis,economies,growth) [inferred]
(crisis,economies) [inferred]

challenge (Read more)

Until recently, the profession has been far too resistant to eliminating artificial distinctions, let alone embracing a more multidisciplinary approach.
These self-imposed limits have persisted despite abundant evidence that, particularly since the early 2000s, advanced economies are saddled with structural and institutional impediments that have stifled growth in a manner quite familiar to developing economies. In the years since the global financial crisis in 2008, these problems have deepened political and societal divisions, undermined financial stability, and made it more difficult to confront the unprecedented crisis that is now knocking down our door.
Support High-Quality Commentary
As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, and its effects reverberate around the world, Project Syndicate is delivering the expert scientific, economic, and political insights that people need
High Level Abstractions:

(crisis,global,growth)
Inferred entity relationships (1)
(global,growth) [inferred]

WIP (Read more)

In the case of the current crisis, the risk that the financial system will reverse-infect the real economy and cause a depression is too big to ignore.
That brings us to the third analytical priority: the economics of circuit breakers
High Level Abstractions:

(breakers,crisis,policy,risk)
(breakers,economic,risk)
(crisis,economics,risk)
(crisis,policy,reverse-infect)
(breakers,economic,economics,risk)
(breakers,crisis,economics,risk)
(breakers,crisis,economics,reverse-infect)
(crisis,economy,policy)
(crisis,risk)
(crisis,economics,reverse-infect)
(economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect)
(economic,economics,risk)
(crisis,economic,reverse-infect)
(crisis,economy)
(economic,economics,policy,risk)
(breakers,economic,policy,risk)
(breakers,crisis,policy,reverse-infect)
(crisis,policy,risk)
(economic,policy,risk)
(breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect)
(economic,policy,reverse-infect)
(breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect)
(crisis,economic,risk)
(economic,economics,reverse-infect)
(breakers,economic,reverse-infect)
(economic,risk)
Inferred entity relationships (81)
(breakers,economic,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,just-adopted) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,policy) [inferred]
(economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,political) [inferred]
(crisis,economy,fed) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,fear,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(crisis,economy,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,risk) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,just-adopted,policy) [inferred]
(economic,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,risk) [inferred]
(policy,risk) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,global) [inferred]
(economic,economics,risk) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
(economic,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,informs,policy) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,reverberate) [inferred]
(economy,policy,trade) [inferred]
(economy,policy) [inferred]
(economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,just-adopted) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,policy) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,societal) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,informs) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,project_syndicate) [inferred]
(economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,fear) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
(economy,policy,wage) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,societal) [inferred]
(crisis,economy) [inferred]
(economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
(economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,risk) [inferred]
(economic,economics,policy,risk) [inferred]
(economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(crisis,economic,high-quality_commentary) [inferred]
(crisis,economics,informs) [inferred]
(breakers,crisis,policy,risk) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,reverse-infect) [inferred]
(breakers,economic,economics,simultaneous) [inferred]
(economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]

Target rule match count: 98.0 Challenge: 0.34 Momentum: 0.00 WIP: 0.16