Complex Event Analysis - Report

Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

Supporting narratives:

• challenge (Read more)
• Measures have included support for money-market funds and primary dealers, as well as Treasury bill purchases and repo (collateralized repurchase transactions) to support the overnight and short-term money markets on whose smooth functioning the financial system depends.
  Fiscal policy efforts are aimed at helping consumers and businesses survive financially and to get them to the other side of the crisis. Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
  What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,consumers)

• challenge (Read more)
• Unless new loans are guaranteed by the Federal Government, such as the paycheck protection program loans to small businesses, banks are going to be extremely cautious in extending new credit until they are sure the risk of default or client bankruptcy is very low.
  Financial distress will also be felt by state and local governments, potentially acutely for some states and cities.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,governments)

• challenge (Read more)
• Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
  What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,keep)
• (collapse,economy)
• (economy,policy)
• (cascading,collapse,unemployment)
• (economy,insurance)
• (cascading,collapse,insurance)
• (businesses,policy)
• (cascading,collapse,keep)
• (collapse,unemployment)
• (cascading,collapse,workers)
• (cascading,economy)
• (economy,monetary)
• (businesses,insurance)
• (businesses,cascading)
• (businesses,collapse)
• (collapse,insurance)
• (collapse,workers)
• (businesses,economy)
• Inferred entity relationships (20)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,wage) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (economy,monetary,policy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]

  (businesses,cascading,collapse) [inferred]

  (collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,trade) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (collapse,workers) [inferred]

• challenge (Read more)
• As individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis. This means that many businesses will simply not bounce back quickly, or at all, because their customers are financially impaired and cannot resume consumption patterns at the previous pace.
  Many businesses will have similar challenges with cash flow to make monthly payments for wages, rents, insurance, loans, etc
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,spending)
• (crisis,economy)
• (businesses,economy)
• (businesses,spending)
• Inferred entity relationships (2)

  (crisis,economy,policy) [inferred]

  (crisis,economy,fed) [inferred]

• challenge (Read more)
• Measures have included support for money-market funds and primary dealers, as well as Treasury bill purchases and repo (collateralized repurchase transactions) to support the overnight and short-term money markets on whose smooth functioning the financial system depends.
  Fiscal policy efforts are aimed at helping consumers and businesses survive financially and to get them to the other side of the crisis
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,policy)

• challenge (Read more)
• Fiscal policy initiatives in this category include 1) providing income to workers with paycheck replacement and expanded unemployment insurance programs and (2) making loans to companies to keep them in business.
  What is critical to appreciate is that support programs aimed at limiting the damage from the phase transition of the cascading network collapse, while essential to putting a floor under the damage, these monetary and fiscal emergency programs do not assist the economy in dealing with long-term financial distress or in accelerating the pace of economic recovery.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,economic)
• (economy,long-term)
• (economic,economy)
• (cascading,collapse,economic)
• (collapse,economic)
• Inferred entity relationships (23)

  (economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,growth) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trump) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,speech) [inferred]

  (collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,energy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trade) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,weather) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,wage) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,governor) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,policy) [inferred]

• challenge (Read more)
• This was a big item following the Great Recession, and it is expected to be significant again in 2020-2021. In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines. Against the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment insurance costs borne by state and local governments
• High Level Abstractions:
• (governments,revenue)

• challenge (Read more)
• The third fiscal stimulus package for $2 trillion included $150 billion in grants for states and local governments. However, this appropriation is unlikely to fill the revenue gap and much more may be requested at a later date since alternative revenue sources such as tax increases are not feasible at this time.
  We note that in the aftermath of the Great Recession, around 850,000 jobs were lost at the state and local government level, with the losses accumulating all the way through 2013, several years after the depths of the crisis
• High Level Abstractions:
• (governments,revenue)

• challenge (Read more)
• In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines. Against the backdrop of falling revenue will be the costs for the virus containment, especially health care and unemployment insurance costs borne by state and local governments
• High Level Abstractions:
• (costs,governments)
• (governments,virus)

• challenge (Read more)
• However, this appropriation is unlikely to fill the revenue gap and much more may be requested at a later date since alternative revenue sources such as tax increases are not feasible at this time.
  We note that in the aftermath of the Great Recession, around 850,000 jobs were lost at the state and local government level, with the losses accumulating all the way through 2013, several years after the depths of the crisis
• High Level Abstractions:
• (governments,great_recession)

• challenge (Read more)
• The bottom line here is that job losses are likely at the state and local government level in the second half of 2020, 2021, and possibly beyond.
  Policy Analysis III: Rebuilding the Network
  There is considerable overlap between the financial distress and restructuring phase as it evolves into the network rebuilding phase
• High Level Abstractions:
• (governments,overlap)

• challenge (Read more)
• Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economic,economy)
• (economy,growth)
• Inferred entity relationships (30)

  (economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,growth) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trump) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,policy) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,speech) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,president_reagan) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,energy) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,workforce) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,space_economy_satellite_account) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,usmca) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,manufacturing) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,policies) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,services) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,wage) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,ranking_member_wyden) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trade) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,weather) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,recall) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,wage) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,workers) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,governor) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,trade) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,the_fed) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,policy) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,taxes) [inferred]

• challenge (Read more)
• Many analysts argue buying long-term US Treasuries are not likely to help to the economy, although they can reduce fixed-income and equity market volatility. Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,great_recession)

• challenge (Read more)
• Unfortunately, Fed purchases of longer-term Treasuries in the period after the Great Recession did not promote economic growth yet did encourage a 'search for yield'which led to more risk-taking and is one of the reasons the damage in the financial distress period was so severe in this crisis for many investors.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (crisis,economy)
• Inferred entity relationships (2)

  (crisis,economy,policy) [inferred]

  (crisis,economy,fed) [inferred]

• challenge (Read more)
• Essentially, this is a phase of financial distress and restructuring. Companies and individuals will be sorting out the damage from the cascading network collapse phase. This new phase includes the potential for defaults, bankruptcies, and significant corporate restructuring.
  Some individuals will not be able to pay rent, utilities, insurance premiums, car loans, mortgages, etc
• High Level Abstractions:
• (cascading,collapse,individuals)
• (collapse,individuals)
• Inferred entity relationships (10)

  (collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• After the virus containment measures are relaxed and the economy starts to go back to work, we enter the second phase: financial distress and restructuring. Consumers, businesses, and governments assess the financial damage from the cascading network collapse phase, and they try to develop strategies to go forward in an altered economic environment of severely limited resources
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,consumers)
• (businesses,governments)
• (cascading,governments)
• (collapse,governments)
• (businesses,cascading,collapse)
• (collapse,consumers)
• (cascading,collapse,economy)
• (cascading,collapse,consumers)
• (businesses,cascading)
• (consumers,governments)
• (businesses,collapse)
• (businesses,economy)
• Inferred entity relationships (14)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (businesses,cascading,collapse) [inferred]

  (collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (businesses,cascading) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (collapse,economy) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• This category includes, among other things, spending on infrastructure and direct grants to state and local governments.
  Loans. Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,consumers)
• (governments,keep)
• (businesses,keep)
• (businesses,governments)
• (businesses,federal_government)
• (governments,spending)
• (businesses,spending)

• WIP (Read more)
• Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,collapse)

• WIP (Read more)
• Loans from the Fed or the Federal Government are mainly useful to keep businesses and consumers afloat, so they helped in the cascading network collapse phase to get one to the other side, but they are not as useful in the rebuilding phase
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,cascading)
• (cascading,collapse,consumers)
• (cascading,collapse,keep)
• (businesses,cascading,collapse)
• (collapse,consumers)
• Inferred entity relationships (13)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (businesses,cascading,collapse) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (businesses,cascading) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• This means that many businesses will simply not bounce back quickly, or at all, because their customers are financially impaired and cannot resume consumption patterns at the previous pace.
  Many businesses will have similar challenges with cash flow to make monthly payments for wages, rents, insurance, loans, etc.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,insurance)

• WIP (Read more)
• As individuals work through their newly diminished financial situation, it is nearly certain that spending in the economy will be materially below what it was before the crisis
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,individuals)

• WIP (Read more)
• That is, loans to businesses and individuals help them to stay afloat during the crisis and get to the other side; but loans do not necessarily assist in a rapid restart of businesses
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,individuals)

• WIP (Read more)
• But the credit quality of their loan portfolios may be severely diminished, and some borrowers, individuals and businesses will miss loan and mortgage payments. Unless new loans are guaranteed by the Federal Government, such as the paycheck protection program loans to small businesses, banks are going to be extremely cautious in extending new credit until they are sure the risk of default or client bankruptcy is very low.
  Financial distress will also be felt by state and local governments, potentially acutely for some states and cities
• High Level Abstractions:
• (businesses,individuals)
• (businesses,federal_government)

• WIP (Read more)
• This was a big item following the Great Recession, and it is expected to be significant again in 2020-2021. In short, every major source of revenue for states and local governments is likely to experience material declines
• High Level Abstractions:
• (governments,great_recession)

• WIP (Read more)
• These are highly important monetary and fiscal policy programs as they seek to mitigate the damage and put a higher floor under the economy than might otherwise have occurred without this assistance.
  The economic support programs from the central bank are focused on maintaining the smooth functioning of financial markets so there is not a banking system failure, as there was in the financial panic of September 2008 that led to the Great Recession
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,monetary)
• (economy,policy)
• (economic,economy)
• Inferred entity relationships (19)

  (economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,growth) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trump) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,trade) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,speech) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,wage) [inferred]

  (economy,monetary,policy) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,weather) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,wage) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,energy) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,governor) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,trade) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economic,economy,policy) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• Even during the network rebuilding phase, we expect strong deflationary forces which are unlikely to fully dissipate until the second half of 2021.
  There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,monetary)
• (economy,policy)
• Inferred entity relationships (6)

  (economy,monetary,policy) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,usmca) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,trade) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economy,policy,wage) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• Even during the network rebuilding phase, we expect strong deflationary forces which are unlikely to fully dissipate until the second half of 2021.
  There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium. Some policies will work well and others may not be as effective as hoped.
  New fiscal spending.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,spending)

• WIP (Read more)
• Even during the network rebuilding phase, we expect strong deflationary forces which are unlikely to fully dissipate until the second half of 2021.
  There are also likely to be more fiscal and monetary policy responses as the economy enter the network rebuilding transition phase back to steady-state growth equilibrium. Some policies will work well and others may not be as effective as hoped.
  New fiscal spending
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,growth)
• Inferred entity relationships (17)

  (economy,growth,manufacturing) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,unemployment) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,policies) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,services) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,wage) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,policy) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,ranking_member_wyden) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,the_federal_reserve) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,recall) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,president_reagan) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,workers) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,workforce) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,space_economy_satellite_account) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,trade) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,the_fed) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,taxes) [inferred]

  (economy,growth,usmca) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• These are highly important monetary and fiscal policy programs as they seek to mitigate the damage and put a higher floor under the economy than might otherwise have occurred without this assistance.
  The economic support programs from the central bank are focused on maintaining the smooth functioning of financial markets so there is not a banking system failure, as there was in the financial panic of September 2008 that led to the Great Recession.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (economy,great_recession)

• WIP (Read more)
• Importantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
  Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
  After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will remain far from equilibrium as it stabilizes at a lower level of output and experiences severe financial distress
• High Level Abstractions:
• (collapse,restructuring_phase)
• (cascading,economy)
• (collapse,economy)
• (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase)
• (collapse,resets)
• (cascading,collapse,economy)
• Inferred entity relationships (12)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

  (collapse,economy) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• This new phase includes the potential for defaults, bankruptcies, and significant corporate restructuring.
  Some individuals will not be able to pay rent, utilities, insurance premiums, car loans, mortgages, etc.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (cascading,collapse,insurance)
• (collapse,rent)
• (collapse,insurance)
• Inferred entity relationships (10)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• The US and other economies around the globe have abruptly shifted from a steady-state growth equilibrium to a state that might be best characterized as "far from equilibrium." Getting back to a steady-state growth equilibrium may involve three distinct phase transitions, with each phase having strikingly different implications for policy initiatives.
  First, there is the phase of cascading network collapse. Our economic system is a myriad of interconnected parts. We have disruptions in supply chains, transportation, consumer demand, etc., that feed on themselves
• High Level Abstractions:
• (cascading,collapse,economic)
• (collapse,economic)
• Inferred entity relationships (10)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

• WIP (Read more)
• Importantly though, the economy resets from a higher level of activity than if the cascading network collapse had not been mitigated, at least to some extent.
  Policy Analysis II: Financial Distress & Restructuring Phase
  After the network failure has been arrested, the economy will remain far from equilibrium as it stabilizes at a lower level of output and experiences severe financial distress.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (cascading,collapse,stabilizes)
• (collapse,stabilizes)
• Inferred entity relationships (10)

  (cascading,collapse,individuals) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economic) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,unemployment) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,consumers) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,keep) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,economy) [inferred]

  (collapse,stabilizes) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,insurance) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,restructuring_phase) [inferred]

  (cascading,collapse,workers) [inferred]

Target rule match count: 92.0 Challenge: 0.20 Momentum: 0.00 WIP: 0.30