Complex Event Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • Demand would fall by 80% in entertainment, arts, recreation, restaurants, and lodging (for 3 months).
    Retail trade would fall by 25%.
    The demand for medical and hospital services would surge.
    And, a fear of travel, coupled with government-imposed restrictions, would lead to a dramatic decline in domestic and international travel
  • It represents the hit the economy takes from hospitalizations, deaths, lost productivity, and a consequent slowdown in the flow of goods and services.
  • Momentum supporting factors

  • (flu, virus)
  • (flu, global)
  • Challenge supporting factors

  • (outbreak, virus)
  • (health, vaccine)
  • (health, virus)
  • (vaccine, virus)
  • (unfamiliar, virus)
  • (reform, vaccine)
  • (reform, virus)
  • (pre-existing, virus)
  • (manufacturing, vaccine)
  • (cell-based, flu)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (economic, services)
  • (outbreak, virus)
  • (economic, policy)
  • (economic, economy)
  • (canada, economic)
  • (flu, outbreak)
  • (avian, flu)
  • (h5n1, virus)
  • (countries, flu)
  • (countries, virus)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report20.00 2.61 77.40

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (economic,services)100.00
    (2) (outbreak,virus)83.21
    (3) (economic,policy)48.91
    (4) (economic,economy)40.15
    (5) (canada,economic)29.93
    (6) (flu,outbreak)29.20
    (7) (health,vaccine)26.28
    (8) (avian,flu)26.28
    (9) (manufacturing,vaccine)25.55
    (10) (health,virus)25.55
    (11) (h5n1,virus)24.82
    (12) (countries,flu)24.09
    (13) (countries,virus)23.36
    (14) (avian,virus)21.90
    (15) (vaccine,virus)21.17
    (16) (unfamiliar,virus)20.44
    (17) (flu,tentacles)19.71
    (18) (tentacles,virus)18.98
    (19) (reform,vaccine)18.25
    (20) (reform,virus)17.52
    (21) (flu,progressively)16.79
    (22) (progressively,virus)16.06
    (23) (pre-existing,virus)15.33
    (24) (killing,virus)14.60
    (25) (flu,manufacturing)13.87
    (26) (flu,technology)11.68
    (27) (technology,vaccine)10.95
    (28) (cell-based,flu)10.22
    (29) (cell-based,vaccine)9.49
    (30) (uncertainly,vaccine)8.76
    (31) (safety,vaccine)8.03
    (32) (flu,virus)8.03
    (33) (profit,vaccine)7.30
    (34) (global,vaccine)6.57
    (35) (fristcontributor,vaccine)5.84
    (36) (flu,vaccine)5.11
    (37) (flu,global)2.92
    (38) (flu,strikes)0.73

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

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    Supporting narratives:

    • momentum (Read more)
      • the profound sensitivity of the modern global economy to a contagious, spreading, infectious disease.
        The SARS virus infected only 8,000, and killed just 774 (remember the annual seasonal flu kills 30,000 in America every year)
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (flu,virus)
        • (flu,global)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • "But," you say, "1918 is a long time ago."
        "Is there a modern example of a viral outbreak that we can learn from."
        And the answer is yes.the 2003 outbreak of the SARS virus
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (outbreak,virus)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • We Failed To Act On Pandemic Preparedness After SARS - FristContributor
        Policy
        I cover global and domestic health care and health care reform.
        We will vanquish the COVID-19 virus.
        Effective treatments are beginning to emerge and there will be a time in the future when a vaccine is developed
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (reform,virus)
        • (health,virus)
        • (reform,vaccine)
        • (health,vaccine)
        • (fristcontributor,vaccine)
        • (global,vaccine)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • We Failed To Act On Pandemic Preparedness After SARS - FristContributor
        Policy
        I cover global and domestic health care and health care reform.
        We will vanquish the COVID-19 virus.
        Effective treatments are beginning to emerge and there will be a time in the future when a vaccine is developed.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (vaccine,virus)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • For the final element to fall into place, it will require little more than the shuffling of a few genes between the animal and human forms of a virus (.a phenomenon known as an antigenic shift.)
        The resulting mix will be totally unfamiliar to the human immune system which normally fights infections .meaning that human beings will have no natural immunity to it
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (unfamiliar,virus)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The Hong Kong outbreak signaled that the H5N1 strain had satisfied 2 of 3 prerequisites for a pandemic:
        1st: the H5N1 strain was a novel type of virus, to which no human being has any pre-existing immunity.
        2nd: The virus could reproduce in humans and cause serious illness.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (pre-existing,virus)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • In a time of pandemic, that's an unacceptable wait.
        We have a dangerously inadequate vaccine manufacturing base in this country. Bottom-line: there's so little profit and so much uncertainly in vaccine manufacturing today.
        30 years ago there were 24 vaccine manufacturers
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (manufacturing,vaccine)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • We need to bring them together to form a "Manhattan Project for the 21st Century" which can help us better defend against naturally occurring, accidental, and intentional threats. including infectious diseases.
        One example is targeted research for a cell-based flu vaccine. By investing in cell-based manufacturing technology, rather than relying on antiquated egg-based technology, the window for bug to drug can be cut from a year to less than six months
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (cell-based,vaccine)
        • (cell-based,flu)
        • (flu,vaccine)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • We Failed To Act On Pandemic Preparedness After SARS - FristContributor
        Policy
        I cover global and domestic health care and health care reform.
        We will vanquish the COVID-19 virus.
        Effective treatments are beginning to emerge and there will be a time in the future when a vaccine is developed. The stringent safety measures we now have in place will be a thing of the past.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (safety,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • It represents the hit the economy takes from hospitalizations, deaths, lost productivity, and a consequent slowdown in the flow of goods and services.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (economic,services)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Demand would fall by 80% in entertainment, arts, recreation, restaurants, and lodging (for 3 months).
        Retail trade would fall by 25%.
        The demand for medical and hospital services would surge.
        And, a fear of travel, coupled with government-imposed restrictions, would lead to a dramatic decline in domestic and international travel
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (economic,services)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • By immediately outlining and implementing a specific policy prescription, we can minimize not only the direct economic effects of a pandemic, but perhaps more significant, greatly reduce the costly indirect effects of panic, fear and paralysis
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (economic,policy)
        • Inferred entity relationships (11)
        • (economic,policy,the_fomc) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,risk) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,usmca) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,simultaneous) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,trade) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,wage) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,regulatory) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,reverse-infect) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,workforce) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,post-pandemic_economies) [inferred]
        • (economic,policy,societal) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • the pandemic's impact on our economy.
        "When a pandemic strikes, exactly how devastating will the economic fallout be."
        That is the question I'll answer today
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (economic,economy)
        • Inferred entity relationships (13)
        • (economic,economy,supervisory) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,expansion) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,growth) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,united_states) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,trump) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,trade) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,usmca) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,speech) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,weather) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,wage) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,energy) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,governor) [inferred]
        • (economic,economy,policy) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • And in Canada.where fewer than 500 people were infected.the country suffered more than $1 billion in economic losses
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (canada,economic)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • More alarming, the right mix of genes could allow for sustained human-to-human transmission: an avian pandemic would launch to life.
        Since the 1997 outbreak, the avian flu has progressively and relentlessly spread across 16 countries. From Hong Kong, the virus has stretched its tentacles into and Croatia.infecting 135 humans, and killing 69 (in 5 countries - Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam)
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (countries,virus)
        • (progressively,virus)
        • (flu,outbreak)
        • (tentacles,virus)
        • (countries,flu)
        • (flu,virus)
        • (flu,progressively)
        • (flu,tentacles)
        • (outbreak,virus)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • The Hong Kong outbreak signaled that the H5N1 strain had satisfied 2 of 3 prerequisites for a pandemic:
        1st: the H5N1 strain was a novel type of virus, to which no human being has any pre-existing immunity
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (h5n1,virus)
        • (outbreak,virus)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • More alarming, the right mix of genes could allow for sustained human-to-human transmission: an avian pandemic would launch to life.
        Since the 1997 outbreak, the avian flu has progressively and relentlessly spread across 16 countries
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (avian,virus)
        • (avian,flu)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • More alarming, the right mix of genes could allow for sustained human-to-human transmission: an avian pandemic would launch to life.
        Since the 1997 outbreak, the avian flu has progressively and relentlessly spread across 16 countries. From Hong Kong, the virus has stretched its tentacles into and Croatia.infecting 135 humans, and killing 69 (in 5 countries - Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam).
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (killing,virus)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • including infectious diseases.
        One example is targeted research for a cell-based flu vaccine. By investing in cell-based manufacturing technology, rather than relying on antiquated egg-based technology, the window for bug to drug can be cut from a year to less than six months
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (manufacturing,vaccine)
        • (flu,manufacturing)
        • (technology,vaccine)
        • (flu,technology)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • We have a dangerously inadequate vaccine manufacturing base in this country. Bottom-line: there's so little profit and so much uncertainly in vaccine manufacturing today.
        30 years ago there were 24 vaccine manufacturers
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (uncertainly,vaccine)
        • (profit,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • depending upon the virulence of the strain that strikes and our capacity to respond.that the ensuing death toll could be devastating.
        In recent weeks, the growing death toll of the avian flu and the mounting drumbeat of discussion have placed the virus under the microscope of the public eye
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (avian,flu)
        • (flu,strikes)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In the United States, the pandemic was so acute that the average lifespan was shaved-off by 10 years.
        "So, will an avian pandemic today be more severe or less severe than the 1918 avian flu."
        We don't know.
        Scientists who believe that the coming pandemic will be LESS severe cite the dramatic 20th century advances in science and medicine
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (avian,flu)

    Target rule match count: 62.0 Challenge: 0.10 Momentum: 0.01 WIP: 0.39