Complex Event Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • The fundamental cause of that epidemic, our analysis suggests, was not economic fluctuations, but rather the long-term loss of a way of life among white working-class Americans. Notably, deaths of despair were rising before the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, when US unemployment rose from 4.5% to 10%, and they continued to rise as unemployment gradually fell to 3.5% in the days before the pandemic
  • Between rising "deaths of despair" among working-class whites and higher COVID-19 mortality rates among African-Americans, the stunning secular decline in US life expectancy will continue.
  • Momentum supporting factors

  • (americans, less-educated)
  • (americans, prime-age)
  • (health, income, workers)
  • (health, workers)
  • (health, risk)
  • (health, income, less-educated)
  • (covid-19, health, income)
  • (americans, health)
  • (americans, health, income)
  • (health, income, wealth)
  • Challenge supporting factors

  • (americans, working-class)
  • (americans, unemployment)
  • (americans, economic)
  • (americans, united_states)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (americans, working-class)
  • (americans, economic)
  • (americans, covid-19)
  • (americans, three-year)
  • (health, workers)
  • (health, risk)
  • (covid-19, health)
  • (covid-19, health, income)
  • (college, health)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report6.32 69.47 24.21

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (americans,working-class)100.00
    (2) (americans,economic)93.98
    (3) (health,workers)77.44
    (4) (health,risk)74.44
    (5) (covid-19,health,income)54.89
    (6) (americans,unemployment)48.87
    (7) (americans,less-educated)48.12
    (8) (americans,covid-19)45.86
    (9) (americans,united_states)45.11
    (10) (americans,three-year)44.36
    (11) (americans,prime-age)43.61
    (12) (health,income,workers)39.85
    (13) (health,income,less-educated)36.09
    (14) (covid-19,health)32.33
    (15) (americans,health)20.30
    (16) (americans,health,income)18.05
    (17) (health,income,wealth)11.28
    (18) (health,wealth)9.77
    (19) (health,income,virus)7.52
    (20) (health,income,stratified)4.51
    (21) (college,health)2.26

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

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    Supporting narratives:

    • momentum (Read more)
      • At the same time, college graduates. earnings premium over those without a degree has risen to an astonishing 80%. With less-educated Americans becoming increasingly less likely to have jobs, the share of prime-age men in the labor force has trended downward for decades, as has the labor-force participation rate for women since 2000.
        Educated Americans are pulling away from the less-educated majority not only in terms of income, but also in health outcomes
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,less-educated)

    • momentum (Read more)
      • earnings premium over those without a degree has risen to an astonishing 80%. With less-educated Americans becoming increasingly less likely to have jobs, the share of prime-age men in the labor force has trended downward for decades, as has the labor-force participation rate for women since 2000.
        Educated Americans are pulling away from the less-educated majority not only in terms of income, but also in health outcomes
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,prime-age)

    • momentum (Read more)
      • Whereas college graduates have largely been able to safeguard both their health and their wealth, less-educated workers must risk one or the other.
        For this reason, the income and longevity gaps that the trend in deaths of despair has revealed are now widening further
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (health,workers)
        • (college,health)
        • (health,income,workers)
        • (health,risk)
        • (health,income,wealth)
        • (health,wealth)
        • Inferred entity relationships (5)
        • (health,income,wealth) [inferred]
        • (health,income,less-educated) [inferred]
        • (health,income,workers) [inferred]
        • (health,income,virus) [inferred]
        • (health,income,stratified) [inferred]

    • momentum (Read more)
      • With less-educated Americans becoming increasingly less likely to have jobs, the share of prime-age men in the labor force has trended downward for decades, as has the labor-force participation rate for women since 2000.
        Educated Americans are pulling away from the less-educated majority not only in terms of income, but also in health outcomes
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,health,income)
        • (health,income,less-educated)
        • (americans,health)
        • Inferred entity relationships (7)
        • (health,income,wealth) [inferred]
        • (health,income,less-educated) [inferred]
        • (health,income,workers) [inferred]
        • (health,income,virus) [inferred]
        • (americans,health) [inferred]
        • (americans,health,income) [inferred]
        • (health,income,stratified) [inferred]

    • momentum (Read more)
      • A great divergence in lifespans across the world gave way to a great convergence.
        But the US has been experiencing a great divergence at home for two generations, and COVID-19 promises to widen the country.s already vast inequalities in health and income. The effects of the virus are stratified by educational attainment, because those with more education are likelier to be able to continue working and earning from home
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,health,income)
        • (health,income,stratified)
        • (health,income,virus)
        • Inferred entity relationships (6)
        • (health,income,wealth) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,health) [inferred]
        • (health,income,less-educated) [inferred]
        • (health,income,workers) [inferred]
        • (health,income,virus) [inferred]
        • (health,income,stratified) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The fundamental cause of that epidemic, our analysis suggests, was not economic fluctuations, but rather the long-term loss of a way of life among white working-class Americans. Notably, deaths of despair were rising before the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, when US unemployment rose from 4.5% to 10%, and they continued to rise as unemployment gradually fell to 3.5% in the days before the pandemic
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,working-class)
        • (americans,economic)
        • (americans,unemployment)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Between rising "deaths of despair" among working-class whites and higher COVID-19 mortality rates among African-Americans, the stunning secular decline in US life expectancy will continue.
        PRINCETON. Well before COVID-19 struck, there was another epidemic running rampant in the United States, killing more Americans in 2018 than the coronavirus has killed so far. What we call .deaths of despair. deaths by suicide, alcohol-related liver disease, and drug overdose
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,united_states)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Between rising "deaths of despair" among working-class whites and higher COVID-19 mortality rates among African-Americans, the stunning secular decline in US life expectancy will continue.
        PRINCETON
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,working-class)
        • (americans,covid-19)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • That was the first three-year drop in life expectancy since the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19; with two epidemics now raging at once, life expectancy is set to fall again.
        Behind these mortality figures are equally gloomy economic data.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,economic)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Life expectancy at birth for all Americans fell between 2014 and 2017. That was the first three-year drop in life expectancy since the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19; with two epidemics now raging at once, life expectancy is set to fall again.
        Behind these mortality figures are equally gloomy economic data
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (americans,three-year)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Unless they are among the highly educated workers in health care and other front-line sectors, they can sit back and watch the stock market propel the value of their retirement funds ever higher.
        By contrast, the two-thirds of workers who lack a four-year college degree are either nonessential, and thus risk losing their earnings, or essential, and thus at risk of infection
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (health,workers)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Unless they are among the highly educated workers in health care and other front-line sectors, they can sit back and watch the stock market propel the value of their retirement funds ever higher.
        By contrast, the two-thirds of workers who lack a four-year college degree are either nonessential, and thus risk losing their earnings, or essential, and thus at risk of infection.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (health,risk)
        • (college,health)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Pain, loneliness, and disability have become more common among those without a degree.
        Such was the US on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,health)
        • (covid-19,health,income)
        • Inferred entity relationships (7)
        • (health,income,wealth) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,health) [inferred]
        • (health,income,less-educated) [inferred]
        • (health,income,workers) [inferred]
        • (health,income,virus) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,health,income) [inferred]
        • (health,income,stratified) [inferred]

    Target rule match count: 21.0 Challenge: 0.03 Momentum: 0.35 WIP: 0.12