Complex Event Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • I have concluded that if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify."
    The Senate, of course, declined to hear any witnesses, and went on to acquit Trump on the two articles of impeachment the House had adopted
  • Had a Senate majority agreed to call witnesses and had I testified, I am convinced, given the environment then existing because of the House's impeachment malpractice, that it would have made no significant difference in the Senate outcome.
    One incident during the Senate proceedings that generated substantial attention was the leak of what purported to be information from the manuscript of this book to the New York Times
  • Momentum supporting factors

  • (impeachment, political)
  • (impeachment, political, trump)
  • (impeachment, washington)
  • (impeachment, trump, washington)
  • (trump, washington)
  • Challenge supporting factors

  • (impeachment, senate)
  • (democrats, impeachment)
  • (impeachment, senate, trump)
  • (senate, trump)
  • (democrats, trump)
  • (democrats, impeachment, trump)
  • (impeachment, vindication)
  • (impeachment, trump, vindication)
  • (trump, vindication)
  • (politics, trump)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (impeachment, political, trump)
  • (impeachment, senate, trump)
  • (democrats, impeachment, trump)
  • (impeachment, witnesses)
  • (impeachment, trump, witnesses)
  • (trump, witnesses)
  • (impeachment, national_security_advisor)
  • (impeachment, speculation, trump)
  • (speculation, trump)
  • (impeachment, new_york_times, trump)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report32.39 11.97 55.64

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (impeachment,senate,trump)100.00
    (2) (impeachment,political,trump)98.25
    (3) (democrats,impeachment,trump)87.13
    (4) (impeachment,senate)62.57
    (5) (democrats,impeachment)56.14
    (6) (senate,trump)47.95
    (7) (democrats,trump)46.20
    (8) (impeachment,political)43.86
    (9) (impeachment,witnesses)39.77
    (10) (impeachment,trump,witnesses)38.01
    (11) (trump,witnesses)36.84
    (12) (impeachment,washington)29.82
    (13) (impeachment,trump,washington)28.65
    (14) (trump,washington)26.90
    (15) (impeachment,national_security_advisor)26.90
    (16) (impeachment,vindication)26.32
    (17) (impeachment,trump,vindication)25.73
    (18) (crisis,trump)25.15
    (19) (trump,vindication)23.39
    (20) (impeachment,speculation,trump)22.81
    (21) (speculation,trump)21.64
    (22) (impeachment,new_york_times,trump)21.05
    (23) (impeachment,national_security_advisor,trump)18.71
    (24) (house_democrats,impeachment,trump)18.13
    (25) (hard-pressed,impeachment,trump)15.79
    (26) (politics,trump)13.45
    (27) (impeachment,ukraine)12.28
    (28) (trump,wrongly)11.70
    (29) (trump,united_states)11.11
    (30) (trump,twenty-second_amendment)10.53
    (31) (impeachment,various)5.26
    (32) (impeachment,twofold)2.92
    (33) (impeachment,twenty-second_amendment)2.34
    (34) (political,reagan_administration)1.75
    (35) (chuck_cooper,political)1.17
    (36) (america,political)0.58

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

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    Supporting narratives:

    • momentum (Read more)
      • I was not then aware of the now famous whistleblower's complaint, nor of its handling within the Executive Branch, but that complaint and the publicity it subsequently received transformed the Washington political landscape in completely unforeseen ways.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (trump,washington)
        • (impeachment,political)
        • (impeachment,washington)
        • (impeachment,trump,washington)
        • (impeachment,political,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (6)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (political,trump) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,political,trump) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,political) [inferred]
        • (trump,washington) [inferred]

    • momentum (Read more)
      • The Democrats'perceived imperatives posed by the electoral calendar may have raised hard political questions and difficult logistical problems for impeachment advocates, but that was their own fault
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,political)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (impeachment,political,trump) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • I have concluded that if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify."
        The Senate, of course, declined to hear any witnesses, and went on to acquit Trump on the two articles of impeachment the House had adopted
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,senate)
        • (senate,trump)
        • (impeachment,senate,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (impeachment,senate) [inferred]
        • (senate,trump) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,senate,trump) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Any assertion to the contrary is unfounded speculation." Whoever did undertake these leaks, a question that remains unfortunately unanswered, is certainly no friend of mine.
        Trump's subsequent acquittal demonstrated yet another consequence of the impeachment malpractice committed by the House of Representatives. Democrats argued that impeachment itself would forever taint the Trump presidency, thus justifying their actions in the House
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (democrats,impeachment)
        • (democrats,impeachment,trump)
        • (democrats,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (5)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]
        • (democrats,impeachment,trump) [inferred]
        • (democrats,impeachment) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Inexplicably, they ignored the palpable reality that the inevitable consequence of a failed impeachment effort meant that Trump could claim vindication, and act accordingly, which is precisely what he did.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (trump,vindication)
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication)
        • (impeachment,vindication)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]
        • (trump,vindication) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • More widely, faced with the coronavirus crisis, Trump said, "When somebody is the President of the United States, the authority is total, and that's the way it's got to be."2 He threatened to adjourn Congress, wrongly citing a
        constitutional provision that has never been used.3 No conservative who has read the Constitution could be anything but astonished at these assertions.
        Of course, politics is ever present in government, but a second-term Trump will be far less constrained by politics than he was in his first term
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (trump,wrongly)
        • (politics,trump)
        • (trump,united_states)
        • (crisis,trump)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The real guardrail is elections, which Trump faces in November 2020. Should he win, the Twenty-Second Amendment precludes (and should continue to preclude) any further electoral constraint on Trump
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (trump,twenty-second_amendment)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Judge Richard Leon, in a carefully reasoned opinion on December 30, held Dr. Kupperman's case to be moot, and therefore did not reach the separation-of-powers issues.
        "The House has concluded its Constitutional responsibility by adopting Articles of Impeachment related to the Ukraine matter. It
        now falls to the Senate to fulfill its Constitutional obligation to try impeachments, and it does not appear possible that a final judicial resolution of the still-unanswered Constitutional questions can be obtained before the Senate acts.
        "Accordingly, since my testimony is once again at issue, I have had to resolve the serious competing issues as best I could, based on careful consideration and study
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,ukraine)
        • (impeachment,senate)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (impeachment,senate,trump) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Should he win, the Twenty-Second Amendment precludes (and should continue to preclude) any further electoral constraint on Trump. While liberals and Democrats focus on impeachment, conservatives and Republicans should worry about the removal of the political guardrail of Trump having to face reelection
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (democrats,impeachment)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (democrats,impeachment,trump) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Should he win, the Twenty-Second Amendment precludes (and should continue to preclude) any further electoral constraint on Trump
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,twenty-second_amendment)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • I didn't see it that way.
        Neither I nor my attorneys, an outstanding team led by Chuck Cooper, an old friend and colleague from the Department of Justice during the Reagan Administration, were speaking to the press, for good and sufficient reasons. What little sense of complexity and intellectual rigor political debate in America still retains was quickly lost in the impeachment struggle, and trying to explain my views didn't pass my cost-benefit analysis of time and effort expended, given the predictable results
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (america,political)
        • (political,reagan_administration)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Had a Senate majority agreed to call witnesses and had I testified, I am convinced, given the environment then existing because of the House's impeachment malpractice, that it would have made no significant difference in the Senate outcome.
        One incident during the Senate proceedings that generated substantial attention was the leak of what purported to be information from the manuscript of this book to the New York Times
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,senate,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (2)
        • (impeachment,senate) [inferred]
        • (senate,trump) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • While liberals and Democrats focus on impeachment, conservatives and Republicans should worry about the removal of the political guardrail of Trump having to face reelection
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (democrats,impeachment,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (4)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]
        • (democrats,impeachment) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • I have concluded that if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify."
        The Senate, of course, declined to hear any witnesses, and went on to acquit Trump on the two articles of impeachment the House had adopted. Had a Senate majority agreed to call witnesses and had I testified, I am convinced, given the environment then existing because of the House's impeachment malpractice, that it would have made no significant difference in the Senate outcome.
        One incident during the Senate proceedings that generated substantial attention was the leak of what purported to be information from the manuscript of this book to the New York Times
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,witnesses)
        • (trump,witnesses)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]
        • (trump,witnesses) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Most important, from the very outset of proceedings in the House of Representatives, advocates for impeaching Trump on the Ukraine issue were committing impeachment malpractice. They seemed governed more by their own political imperatives to move swiftly to vote on articles of impeachment in order to avoid interfering with the Democratic presidential nomination schedule than in completing a comprehensive investigation
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,ukraine)
        • (impeachment,political,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (2)
        • (political,trump) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,political) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • While liberals and Democrats focus on impeachment, conservatives and Republicans should worry about the removal of the political guardrail of Trump having to face reelection.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,political,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (2)
        • (political,trump) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,political) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Any assertion to the contrary is unfounded speculation." Whoever did undertake these leaks, a question that remains unfortunately unanswered, is certainly no friend of mine.
        Trump's subsequent acquittal demonstrated yet another consequence of the impeachment malpractice committed by the House of Representatives
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,speculation,trump)
        • (speculation,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (speculation,trump) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Had a Senate majority agreed to call witnesses and had I testified, I am convinced, given the environment then existing because of the House's impeachment malpractice, that it would have made no significant difference in the Senate outcome.
        One incident during the Senate proceedings that generated substantial attention was the leak of what purported to be information from the manuscript of this book to the New York Times.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,new_york_times,trump)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • When I resigned as National Security Advisor on September 10, 2019, no
        one was predicting the subsequent Trump impeachment saga
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor)
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (2)
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor,trump) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In fact, I am hard-pressed to identify any significant Trump decision during my tenure that wasn't driven by reelection calculations.
        Second, rushed proceedings, combined with the hysterical mood of many impeachment advocates, which brooked no dissent from the proposition that Trump had to be removed from office by any means available, meant that developing a truly accurate record.at a minimum, a full record.was not an option House Democrats wanted to pursue.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (house_democrats,impeachment,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In fact, I am hard-pressed to identify any significant Trump decision during my tenure that wasn't driven by reelection calculations.
        Second, rushed proceedings, combined with the hysterical mood of many impeachment advocates, which brooked no dissent from the proposition that Trump had to be removed from office by any means available, meant that developing a truly accurate record.at a minimum, a full record.was not an option House Democrats wanted to pursue
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (hard-pressed,impeachment,trump)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (impeachment,trump,witnesses) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,vindication) [inferred]
        • (impeachment,trump,washington) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In the Trump era, normal rules simply did not apply.
        The review process itself was conducted professionally, courteously, and meticulously, but certainly not as expeditiously as I would have liked (although concededly the COVID-19 crisis did have some effect on timing).
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (crisis,trump)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • The various pleadings Cooper filed on Kupperman's behalf made it plain he was not advocating the substantive merits of either the Executive or the Legislative Branches on what his course of conduct should be, but merely seeking the Judiciary's guidance.
        Many of the ensuing developments were misreported in more ways than might seem possible, but the statement that I issued on January 6, 2020, still represents the best summary of these events and my thinking:
        "During the present impeachment controversy, I have tried to meet my obligations both as a citizen and as former National Security Advisor.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (impeachment,national_security_advisor,trump) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • The various pleadings Cooper filed on Kupperman's behalf made it plain he was not advocating the substantive merits of either the Executive or the Legislative Branches on what his course of conduct should be, but merely seeking the Judiciary's guidance.
        Many of the ensuing developments were misreported in more ways than might seem possible, but the statement that I issued on January 6, 2020, still represents the best summary of these events and my thinking:
        "During the present impeachment controversy, I have tried to meet my obligations both as a citizen and as former National Security Advisor
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,various)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • I have no idea who the whistleblower is.
        Nonetheless, as the previous chapter demonstrates, I knew more than I wanted to about Trump's handling of Ukraine affairs, and while the nation as a whole concentrated on the unfolding events relating to impeachment, I concentrated on deciding what my personal and constitutional responsibilities were regarding that information
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,ukraine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • Indeed, in some senses it was a mirror image of what impeachment advocates were accusing Trump of doing: torquing legitimate governmental powers around an illegitimate nongovernmental objective.
        The consequences of this partisan approach by the House were twofold.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (impeachment,twofold)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • I didn't see it that way.
        Neither I nor my attorneys, an outstanding team led by Chuck Cooper, an old friend and colleague from the Department of Justice during the Reagan Administration, were speaking to the press, for good and sufficient reasons
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (chuck_cooper,political)

    Target rule match count: 37.0 Challenge: 0.16 Momentum: 0.06 WIP: 0.28