Complex Event Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • This raises one of the biggest questions of all: Will foreign investors demand concessions to provide the massive increment of foreign capital that America.s saving-short economy is about to require.
    The answer depends critically on whether the US deserves to retain its exorbitant privilege
  • That means today.s saving-short US economy could well be headed for a significant partial liquidation of net saving.
    With unprecedented pressure on domestic saving likely to magnify America.s need for surplus foreign capital, the current-account deficit should widen sharply
  • Momentum supporting factors

  • (america, gdp)
  • (deficit, gdp)
  • (america, capital)
  • (capital, gdp)
  • Challenge supporting factors

  • (america, saving-short)
  • (america, economy)
  • (america, capital)
  • (federal, gdp)
  • (america, razor-thin)
  • (america, operating)
  • (budget, gdp)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (america, saving-short)
  • (gdp, saving-short)
  • (america, economy)
  • (economy, gdp)
  • (america, post-crisis)
  • (gdp, us_congress)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report46.43 21.43 32.15

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (america,saving-short)100.00
    (2) (america,economy)78.38
    (3) (america,capital)56.76
    (4) (gdp,saving-short)45.95
    (5) (america,gdp)43.24
    (6) (economy,gdp)35.14
    (7) (deficit,gdp)32.43
    (8) (federal,gdp)24.32
    (9) (capital,gdp)24.32
    (10) (america,razor-thin)21.62
    (11) (america,post-crisis)18.92
    (12) (america,operating)16.22
    (13) (budget,gdp)13.51
    (14) (gdp,us_congress)2.70

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

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    Supporting narratives:

    • momentum (Read more)
      • That means today.s saving-short US economy could well be headed for a significant partial liquidation of net saving.
        With unprecedented pressure on domestic saving likely to magnify America.s need for surplus foreign capital, the current-account deficit should widen sharply. Since 1982, this broad measure of the external balance has recorded deficits averaging 2.7% of GDP; looking ahead, the previous record deficit of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 could be eclipsed.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (america,gdp)

    • momentum (Read more)
      • That means today.s saving-short US economy could well be headed for a significant partial liquidation of net saving.
        With unprecedented pressure on domestic saving likely to magnify America.s need for surplus foreign capital, the current-account deficit should widen sharply. Since 1982, this broad measure of the external balance has recorded deficits averaging 2.7% of GDP; looking ahead, the previous record deficit of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 could be eclipsed
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (capital,gdp)
        • (deficit,gdp)
        • (america,capital)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • This raises one of the biggest questions of all: Will foreign investors demand concessions to provide the massive increment of foreign capital that America.s saving-short economy is about to require.
        The answer depends critically on whether the US deserves to retain its exorbitant privilege
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (america,saving-short)
        • (america,economy)
        • (america,capital)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • The COVID-19 crisis is an especially tough blow for a country that has long been operating on a razor-thin margin of subpar saving.
        Heading into the pandemic, America.s net domestic saving rate. the combined depreciation-adjusted saving of households, businesses, and the government sector
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (america,razor-thin)
        • (america,operating)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • In COVID time, there is no conventional wisdom.
        The US Congress has moved with uncharacteristic speed to provide relief amid a record-setting economic free-fall. The Congressional Budget Office expects unprecedented federal budget deficits averaging 14% of GDP over 2020-21. And, notwithstanding contentious political debate, additional fiscal measures are quite likely
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (federal,gdp)
        • (budget,gdp)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • This has happened only once before: during and immediately after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when net national saving averaged -1.8% of national income from the second quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, while federal budget deficits averaged 10% of GDP.
        In the COVID-19 era, the net national saving rate could well plunge as low as -5% to -10% over the next 2-3 years
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (federal,gdp)
        • (budget,gdp)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • That means today.s saving-short US economy could well be headed for a significant partial liquidation of net saving.
        With unprecedented pressure on domestic saving likely to magnify America.s need for surplus foreign capital, the current-account deficit should widen sharply
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (gdp,saving-short)
        • (america,saving-short)
        • (america,economy)
        • (economy,gdp)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • stood at just 1.4% of national income, falling back to the post-crisis low of late 2011. No need to worry, goes the conventional excuse. America never saves.
        Think again. The net national saving rate averaged 7% over the 45-year period from 1960 to 2005
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (america,post-crisis)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In COVID time, there is no conventional wisdom.
        The US Congress has moved with uncharacteristic speed to provide relief amid a record-setting economic free-fall. The Congressional Budget Office expects unprecedented federal budget deficits averaging 14% of GDP over 2020-21
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (gdp,us_congress)

    Target rule match count: 14.0 Challenge: 0.23 Momentum: 0.11 WIP: 0.16