Complex Event Analysis - Report

Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

Supporting narratives:

• momentum (Read more)
• At a time when genuine news suggests that equity prices should be tanking, not hitting record highs, explanations based on crowd psychology, the virality of ideas, and the dynamics of narrative epidemics can shed some light.
  NEW HAVEN - The performance of stock markets, especially in the United States, during the coronavirus pandemic seems to defy logic.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (markets,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• Why didn't the stock market "predict" the coming recession by declining before the downturn started.1
  One conjecture is that a pandemic wasn't a familiar event, and most investors in early February just weren't convinced that other investors and consumers paid any attention to such things, until they saw a bigger reaction to the news and in market prices
• High Level Abstractions:
• (investors,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• Especially when mistrust of news media is high, they tend to rely on how people they know respond to news. This process of evaluation takes time, which is why stock markets do not respond to news suddenly and completely, as conventional theory would suggest. The news starts a new trend in markets, but it is sufficiently ambiguous that most smart money has difficulty profiting from it.
  Of course, it is hard to know what drives the stock market, but we can at least conjecture ex post, based on available information.1
  There are three separate phases of the puzzle in the US: the 3% rise in the S&P 500 from the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, on January 30, to February 19; the 34% drop from that date until March 23; and the 42% upswing from March 23 to the present
• High Level Abstractions:
• (markets,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• The news starts a new trend in markets, but it is sufficiently ambiguous that most smart money has difficulty profiting from it.
  Of course, it is hard to know what drives the stock market, but we can at least conjecture ex post, based on available information.1
  There are three separate phases of the puzzle in the US: the 3% rise in the S&P 500 from the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, on January 30, to February 19; the 34% drop from that date until March 23; and the 42% upswing from March 23 to the present.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (stock,upswing)

• challenge (Read more)
• Four days later, Trump signed the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, promising aggressive fiscal stimulus.1
  Both of these measures, and similar actions in other countries, were described as resembling the actions taken to counter the 2008-09 Great Recession, which was followed by a gradual but ultimately huge increase in stock prices. The S&P 500 increased fivefold from its bottom on March 09, 2009, to February 19, 2020.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (stock,the_s)

• challenge (Read more)
• The news starts a new trend in markets, but it is sufficiently ambiguous that most smart money has difficulty profiting from it.
  Of course, it is hard to know what drives the stock market, but we can at least conjecture ex post, based on available information.1
  There are three separate phases of the puzzle in the US: the 3% rise in the S&P 500 from the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, on January 30, to February 19; the 34% drop from that date until March 23; and the 42% upswing from March 23 to the present
• High Level Abstractions:
• (profiting,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• President Donald Trump's impeachment trial, which ended February 5, still dominated talk in the US, and many politicians apparently still found it counterproductive to raise alarms about a hypothetical new enormous tragedy looming.
  The second phase began when the S&P 500 plummeted 34% from February 19 to March 23, a drop akin to the 1929 stock market crash
• High Level Abstractions:
• (politicians,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• Four days later, Trump signed the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, promising aggressive fiscal stimulus.1
  Both of these measures, and similar actions in other countries, were described as resembling the actions taken to counter the 2008-09 Great Recession, which was followed by a gradual but ultimately huge increase in stock prices. The S&P 500 increased fivefold from its bottom on March 09, 2009, to February 19, 2020
• High Level Abstractions:
• (great_recession,stock)

• challenge (Read more)
• Why would investors give shares their highest valuation ever right after the announcement of a possible global tragedy. Interest rates did not fall over this period. Why didn't the stock market "predict" the coming recession by declining before the downturn started.1
  One conjecture is that a pandemic wasn't a familiar event, and most investors in early February just weren't convinced that other investors and consumers paid any attention to such things, until they saw a bigger reaction to the news and in market prices
• High Level Abstractions:
• (global,stock)

• WIP (Read more)
• Four days later, Trump signed the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, promising aggressive fiscal stimulus.1
  Both of these measures, and similar actions in other countries, were described as resembling the actions taken to counter the 2008-09 Great Recession, which was followed by a gradual but ultimately huge increase in stock prices
• High Level Abstractions:
• (stock,trump)

• WIP (Read more)
• Especially when mistrust of news media is high, they tend to rely on how people they know respond to news. This process of evaluation takes time, which is why stock markets do not respond to news suddenly and completely, as conventional theory would suggest
• High Level Abstractions:
• (mistrust,stock)
• (media,stock)

Target rule match count: 11.0 Challenge: 0.35 Momentum: 0.04 WIP: 0.11