Logical Analysis Report

Key Focus

  • Instead of concentrating on the here and now, most reports put the year-on-year inflation rate in the headline. Not to pick on anyone, but here's how The New York Times reported Thursday's report on the consumer price index : "Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent in the year through September, in a report that dashes hopes that inflation in the U.S
  • For instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI.
  • In this case, we would find that consumer prices have risen 8.2% since September 2021. That's very high inflation, but it's lower than the 9% year-on-year increase recorded in June, which was a 40-year high.
  • That's why many analysts prefer to convert the monthly change into an annual rate so that it's comparable to the year-on-year inflation rate. The data say that the CPI rose at an annual rate of 4.7% in September versus the 17.1% pace in June, which was a 17-year high


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High Level Topics

  • INFLATION
  • CPI
  • YEAR-ON-YEAR
  • FED
  • High Level Abstractions

  • INFLATION(10, 0th Order)
  • ( INFLATION )(10, 0th Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, CPI )(5, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, CPI, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, YEAR-ON-YEAR )(4, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, THREE-MONTH )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, SMOOTHED )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, POLICY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, PERSISTING )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, KEEP )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, INVESTORS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, INTEREST )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, FEDERAL_RESERVE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( INFLATION, FED )(3, 1st Order)  top
  • CPI(7, 0th Order)
  • ( CPI )(7, 0th Order)  top
  • ( CPI, THREE-MONTH )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, PERSISTING )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, MONTH-TO-MONTH )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, KEEP )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, INTEREST )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( CPI, FEDERAL_RESERVE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • YEAR-ON-YEAR(5, 0th Order)
  • ( YEAR-ON-YEAR )(5, 0th Order)  top
  • FED(4, 0th Order)
  • ( FED )(4, 0th Order)  top
  • References

    • ( INFLATION )  top
    • ( INFLATION, CPI )  top
    • ( INFLATION, CPI, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )  top
    •   top. . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S.
    • ( INFLATION, YEAR-ON-YEAR )  top
    •   top. . Instead of concentrating on the here and now, most reports put the year-on-year inflation rate in the headline. Not to pick on anyone, but here's how The New York Times reported Thursday's report on the consumer price index : "Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent in the...
    •   topFor instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI.
    •   topIn this case, we would find that consumer prices have risen 8.2% since September 2021. That's very high inflation, but it's lower than the 9% year-on-year increase recorded in June, which was a 40-year high.
    •   topThat's why many analysts prefer to convert the monthly change into an annual rate so that it's comparable to the year-on-year inflation rate. The data say that the CPI rose at an annual rate of 4.7% in September versus the 17.1% pace in June, which was a 17-year high
    • ( INFLATION, THREE-MONTH )  top
    •   topThis perspective answers the question: What's happening with inflation yesterday, today and tomorrow. If we look at the three-month smoothed annual rate, we might disagree with the Fed about how much progress they've made
    • ( INFLATION, SMOOTHED )  top
    •   topThis perspective answers the question: What's happening with inflation yesterday, today and tomorrow. If we look at the three-month smoothed annual rate, we might disagree with the Fed about how much progress they've made.
    • ( INFLATION, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )  top
    •   topSee ( INFLATION , CPI , SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )
    • ( INFLATION, POLICY )  top
    •   topThe best measure shows inflation is slowing, but how much is it slowing. That's the big question facing policy makers, investors and consumers.
    • ( INFLATION, PERSISTING )  top
    •   top. The U.S. cost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases
    • ( INFLATION, KEEP )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases.
    • ( INFLATION, INVESTORS )  top
    •   topThe best measure shows inflation is slowing, but how much is it slowing. That's the big question facing policy makers, investors and consumers.
    • ( INFLATION, INTEREST )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases.
    • ( INFLATION, FEDERAL_RESERVE )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases
    • ( INFLATION, FED )  top
    •   top" The Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot inflation for the next year or so is baked into the cake."
    •   topThis perspective answers the question: What's happening with inflation yesterday, today and tomorrow. If we look at the three-month smoothed annual rate, we might disagree with the Fed about how much progress they've made.
    •   topThe Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot...
    • ( CPI )  top
    • ( CPI, THREE-MONTH )  top
    •   topSo let's find the underlying trend by taking a three-month average to smooth out the bumps. In this case, the data say that the CPI rose at a 2% annual rate from July through through September, down from 11% in June and 11.3% in March, which was a 41-year high
    • ( CPI, SEPTEMBER_WHOLESALE )  top
    •   top... of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases. . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S.
    • ( CPI, PERSISTING )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases
    • ( CPI, MONTH-TO-MONTH )  top
    •   topSo if we wanted to know how hot inflation has been running lately, we'd look at a shorter period of time, say, one month. The media frequently report the CPI this way, using the month-to-month percentage change rather than an annual rate. In this case, the data would say that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after a 0.1% increase in August
    • ( CPI, KEEP )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases. . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months...
    • ( CPI, INTEREST )  top
    •   topcost of living rose 0.4% in September and pointed to high inflation persisting through the end of the year, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to try to curb rampant price increases. . . CPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S
    • ( CPI, FEDERAL_RESERVE )  top
    •   topSee ( INFLATION , FEDERAL_RESERVE )
    • ( YEAR-ON-YEAR )  top
    •   top... we've already endured, we may miss clues about how much inflation we have yet to endure, which is the most important question. . . Instead of concentrating on the here and now, most reports put the year-on-year inflation rate in the headline. Not to pick on anyone, but here's how The New York Times reported Thursday's report on the consumer price index : "Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent in the...
    •   topFor instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI. (The same logic in this column applies to the Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index.) We would compare current prices with prices a year earlier
    •   topThe year-on-year perspective is good for seeing how far we've come, but it's not so good at predicting where inflation is going, because it's essentially a backward-looking measure
    •   topBut using the monthly percentage change seems like a weird choice when we use annual rates for the year-on-year gain. It's like talking about miles-per-hour and then switching to feet-per-second
    •   topThat's why many analysts prefer to convert the monthly change into an annual rate so that it's comparable to the year-on-year inflation rate. The data say that the CPI rose at an annual rate of 4.7% in September versus the 17.1% pace in June, which was a 17-year high
    • ( FED )  top
    •   topI'll show you a more useful way to think about the numbers.. . " The Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot inflation for the next year or so is baked into the cake."
    •   topFor instance, if we want to know how much inflation we've already endured, it might be best to look at the year-on-year increase in the CPI. (The same logic in this column applies to the Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index.) We would compare current prices with prices a year earlier
    •   topIt looks like - dare we say it. The Fed has actually hit its 2% target over the past three months, but of course the Fed is concerned that inflation could accelerate from here, especially in the hugely important shelter category, where hot...
    •   topCPI set to show inflation remained near a 40-year high in September Wholesale prices rise for first time in three months and show U.S. inflation still raging Fed more worried about risks of 'unacceptably high'inflation than overdoing rate hikes, meeting minutes show