Key Focus

  • a member of a team of ordinary people who make surprisingly accurate predictions for the forecasting firm Good Judgment, Inc In recent months, businesses, governments and other institutions have worked with superforecasters like Roth to help them understand how the COVID-19 outbreak might unfold.
    That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff of science fiction, or even ancient history.like the seers of old who told fortunes to kings and nobles
  • And Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
    However, Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're not bound to a particular discipline or approach


To understand how to read this report, please click here

Knowledge Graph(Read more)

Complex Event Analysis(Read more)


High Level Topics

  • SUPERFORECASTERS
  • COVID-19
  • EXPERTS
  • High Level Abstractions

  • SUPERFORECASTERS(6, 0 Order)
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS )(6, 0 Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT )(3, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, OUTBREAK )(2, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, EXPERTS )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, CORONAVIRUS )(2, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, UNIVERSITY )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, TETLOCK )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, SEMI-PROFESSIONAL )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, SEERS )(1, 2nd Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, OUTBREAK )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOVERNMENTS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT_OPEN )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, EXPERTS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, CORONAVIRUS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, UNIVERSITY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, TETLOCK )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • COVID-19(4, 0 Order)
  • ( COVID-19 )(4, 0 Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, VIRUS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, SUPERFORECASTERS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, VACCINE )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, UNPREDICTABLY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, STEVE_ROTH )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, SHANNON_GIFFORD )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, SEMI-PROFESSIONAL )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( COVID-19, SEERS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • EXPERTS(4, 0 Order)
  • ( EXPERTS )(4, 0 Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, CRISIS )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, TETLOCK )(2, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, COVID-19 )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, WARNING )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, VIRUS )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, VET )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • ( EXPERTS, UNPREDICTABLY )(1, 1st Order)  top
  • References

    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS )  top
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT )  top
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, OUTBREAK )  top
    • (Read more)   top ... ordinary people who make surprisingly accurate predictions for the forecasting firm Good Judgment, Inc In recent months, businesses, governments and other institutions have worked with superforecasters like Roth to help them understand how the COVID-19 outbreak might unfold.
      That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff of science fiction, or even ancient history.like the seers...
    • (Read more)   top... the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
      However,
      Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're not bound to a particular discipline or approach
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, EXPERTS )  top
    • (Read more)   topAnd Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
      However, Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're...
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, CORONAVIRUS )  top
    • (Read more)   top
      That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff of science fiction, or even ancient history.like the seers of old who told fortunes to kings and nobles
    • (Read more)   topAnd Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
      However, Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're not bound to a particular discipline...
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, UNIVERSITY )  top
    • (Read more)   topAnd Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-founder of Good Judgment, acknowledges that there are times in which expertise is crucial (for example, he notes that some public health experts warned about the possibility of a coronavirus pandemic early in the outbreak.)
      However,...
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, TETLOCK )  top
    • (Read more)   top
      However, Tetlock argues that superforecasters have skills that experts may not: for example, they may also be more flexible than traditional scientists, because they're not bound to a particular discipline or approach
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, SEMI-PROFESSIONAL )  top
    • (Read more)   top
      That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff of science fiction, or even ancient history.like the seers of old who told fortunes to kings and nobles
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT, SEERS )  top
    • (Read more)   top.like the seers of old who told fortunes to kings and nobles.
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, OUTBREAK )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , OUTBREAK )
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOVERNMENTS )  top
    • (Read more)   top a member of a team of ordinary people who make surprisingly accurate predictions for the forecasting firm Good Judgment, Inc In recent months, businesses, governments and other institutions have worked with superforecasters like Roth to help them understand how the COVID-19 outbreak might unfold.
      That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and...
    • (Read more)   top "But when the herd turns into human beings who make decisions to comply or not comply with different guidelines, and when governments set policies about stay home or not at home, or keep schools open or not, when all of those different factors get involved, that's where a group of human forecasters really excels."
      Jackson agrees that it's possible superforecasters...
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, GOOD_JUDGMENT_OPEN )  top
    • (Read more)   top... company's superforecasters undergo years of testing before they're brought onto the team.in the early days, through tournaments sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, and now on the open-to-the-public forecasting site Good Judgment Open.
    • (Read more)   topUnder the current model, the best forecasters on Good Judgment Open are invited to an online community of superforecasters, where they can share ideas and contribute their predictions to a system that aggregates their forecasts
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, EXPERTS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , EXPERTS )
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, CORONAVIRUS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , CORONAVIRUS )
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, UNIVERSITY )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , UNIVERSITY )
    • ( SUPERFORECASTERS, TETLOCK )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , TETLOCK )
    • ( COVID-19 )  top
    • ( COVID-19, VIRUS )  top
    • (Read more)   top. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker who endured fever, pneumonia and anxiety while fighting the virus, wants life to go back to normal as much as anyone.
    • (Read more)   top
      "I remember saying in large meetings, 'Well, whatever's happening in a couple months could be very different if this virus crashes the economy,'" says Gifford.
    • ( COVID-19, SUPERFORECASTERS )  top
    • (Read more)   top a member of a team of ordinary people who make surprisingly accurate predictions for the forecasting firm Good Judgment, Inc In recent months, businesses, governments and other institutions have worked with superforecasters like Roth to help them understand how the COVID-19 outbreak might unfold.
      That a group of semi-professional forecasters would somehow have accurate insight into anything as complex and important as the coronavirus pandemic sounds like the stuff...
    • (Read more)   top
      Furthermore, superforecasters can assist experts in sounding the alarm early in a major crisis.which, in the case of COVID-19, can save lives
    • ( COVID-19, VACCINE )  top
    • (Read more)   topLAW
      UPDATED: JUNE 11, 2020 4:17 EDT | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JUNE 11, 2020 2:59 EDT
      When Dr. Anthony Fauci said in late May that there's a "good chance" a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of this year, Steve Roth badly wanted to believe him. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker who endured fever, pneumonia and anxiety while fighting the virus, wants life to go back to normal as much as anyone
    • ( COVID-19, UNPREDICTABLY )  top
    • (Read more)   top"It's very much driven by human behaviors, and we've seen that those can change abruptly and unpredictably even in just the short course of this pandemic so far."
      Furthermore, superforecasters can assist experts in sounding the alarm early in a major crisis.which, in the case of COVID-19, can save lives
    • ( COVID-19, STEVE_ROTH )  top
    • (Read more)   topLAW
      UPDATED: JUNE 11, 2020 4:17 EDT | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JUNE 11, 2020 2:59 EDT
      When Dr. Anthony Fauci said in late May that there's a "good chance" a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of this year, Steve Roth badly wanted to believe him. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker who endured fever, pneumonia and anxiety while fighting the virus, wants life to go back to normal as much as anyone
    • ( COVID-19, SHANNON_GIFFORD )  top
    • (Read more)   top. Shannon Gifford, a 61-year-old who has been forecasting for more than eight years and is the deputy chief projects officer for the Denver, Colorado mayor's office, says her colleagues were taken aback when she nudged them as early as January to consider how COVID-19...
    • ( COVID-19, SEMI-PROFESSIONAL )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , SEMI-PROFESSIONAL )
    • ( COVID-19, SEERS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , SEERS )
    • ( EXPERTS )  top
    • ( EXPERTS, CRISIS )  top
    • (Read more)   top "Talented amateurs who pay attention to both the science and the news seem to be better at putting accurate probabilities on key outcomes in this phase of the crisis," he says. "The experts were really good at warning us about the fundamental danger, but they may be less adept at adapting nimbly to the dynamics about this phase of the crisis."
      Superforecasters aren't just smart, Tetlock says; they...
    • (Read more)   top
      Furthermore, superforecasters can assist experts in sounding the alarm early in a major crisis.which, in the case of COVID-19, can save lives. Shannon Gifford, a 61-year-old who has been forecasting for more than eight years and is the deputy chief projects officer for the Denver, Colorado mayor's office, says her colleagues were taken aback when...
    • ( EXPERTS, TETLOCK )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( SUPERFORECASTERS , GOOD_JUDGMENT , TETLOCK )
    • (Read more)   top
      Superforecasters aren't just smart, Tetlock says; they also tend to be actively open-minded and curious.
    • ( EXPERTS, COVID-19 )  top
    • (Read more)   top.which, in the case of COVID-19, can save lives. Shannon Gifford, a 61-year-old who has been forecasting for more than eight years and is the deputy chief projects officer for the Denver, Colorado mayor's office, says her colleagues were taken aback when she nudged them as early...
    • ( EXPERTS, WARNING )  top
    • (Read more)   top "Talented amateurs who pay attention to both the science and the news seem to be better at putting accurate probabilities on key outcomes in this phase of the crisis," he says. "The experts were really good at warning us about the fundamental danger, but they may be less adept at adapting nimbly to the dynamics about this phase of the crisis."
      Superforecasters aren't just smart, Tetlock says; they also tend to be actively open-minded and curious
    • ( EXPERTS, VIRUS )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( COVID-19 , VIRUS )
    • ( EXPERTS, VET )  top
    • (Read more)   topMichael Jackson, an associate scientific investigator at Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, cautions that superforecasters are a "black box," meaning their less-than-scientific methods make it impossible to vet their work in the same way that a scientist's output would undergo peer review.
    • ( EXPERTS, UNPREDICTABLY )  top
    • (Read more)   topSee ( COVID-19 , UNPREDICTABLY )